Assessment of Shock Resistance of the Agricultural Sector of Regional Economy in the Conditions of Import Localization

Abstract

The current situation in the Russian economy is due to the serious impact of sanctions on economic processes. The destabilization of economic processes caused by geopolitical and monetary changes seriously affected both the well-being of the population, business entities, and also at the meso- and macro-levels. Having great significance for many aspects of social and economic life, sanctions significantly affected the features of contract logistics and procurement activities in Russia. In particular, there has been an urgent need to correct many regulations governing procurement processes in accordance with the challenge of the new reality. The adjustment of regulations for procurement and acceptance of work is primarily due to the objective risks of non-fulfillment of contract terms by business entities, both due to disruption of supply chains, difficulties in business processes and due to a violation of the financial stability of counterparties [1]. The study of the parameters of procurement processes within the framework of the new economic reality is limited to quantitative data, which creates difficulties in modeling the situation and in searching for forecasts. Sanctions, affecting the sustainability of the development of economic systems, are of great relevance for research by academic economists. To search for trends in the development and transformation of procurement activities in conditions of uncertainty and crisis, we propose to turn to the quantitative parameters of changes in 2014, paying attention to how statistics in public procurement changed under the conditions of the first sanctions. The scientific novelty of the study is the proposal of a methodology for forecasting the development of procurement activities in conditions of economic instability of the sanctions economy and turbulence: based on extrapolation of trends in changes in procurement activities as a result of the 2014 crisis to the 2022 crisis; through the study of import substitution in procurement using the analysis of the import substitution index. The applied significance of the work lies in the potential for further use of recommendations by state and regional authorities to optimize work with procurement and predict changes. Optimizing procurement can improve the efficiency of spending budget funds.