Assessment of the 2010 global measles mortality reduction goal: results from a model of surveillance data

Simons, Emily; Ferrari, Matthew J.; Fricks, John; Wannemuehler, Kathleen; Anand, Abhijeet; Burton, Anthony; Strebel, Peter M.

doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(12)60522-4

Cited by 279 publications

(289 citation statements)

References 14 publications

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“…Although vaccination has controlled measles in many countries, the disease remains an important cause of child mortality (1). Epidemiological studies conducted by Panum (2) during an 1846 measles epidemic in the Faroe Islands established its remarkable infectiousness and ability to confer lifelong immunity.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Prolonged persistence of measles virus RNA is characteristic of primary infection dynamics

Lin

Kouyos

Adams

et al. 2012

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

109

136

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Measles virus (MeV) is the poster child for acute infection followed by lifelong immunity. However, recent work shows the presence of MeV RNA in multiple sites for up to 3 mo after infection in a proportion of infected children. Here, we use experimental infection of rhesus macaques to show that prolonged RNA presence is characteristic of primary infection. We found that viral RNA persisted in the blood, respiratory tract, or lymph nodes four to five times longer than the infectious virus and that the clearance of MeV RNA from blood happened in three phases: rapid decline coincident with clearance of infectious virus, a rebound phase with increases up to 10-fold, and a phase of slow decrease to undetectable levels. To examine the effect of individual host immune factors on MeV load dynamics further, we developed a mathematical model that expressed viral replication and elimination in terms of the strength of MeV-specific T-cell responses, antibody responses, target cell limitations, and immunosuppressive activity of regulatory T cells. Based on the model, we demonstrate that viral dynamics, although initially regulated by T cells, require antibody to eliminate viral RNA. These results have profound consequences for our view of acute viral infections, the development of prolonged immunity, and, potentially, viral evolution.immune responses | within-host modeling | virus clearance

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mentioning

confidence: 99%

Prolonged persistence of measles virus RNA is characteristic of primary infection dynamics

Lin

Kouyos

Adams

et al. 2012

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

109

136

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…This implies that designing an elimination programme for a particular population involves setting target levels of susceptibility, establishing the current susceptibility profile, selecting an approach to reduce susceptibility below the target, and selecting an approach to maintain susceptibility below the target [27,38]. We show that supplemental vaccination campaigns, in tandem with a routine immunization programme, even for few years can greatly improve the situation.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Age-specific mixing generates transient outbreak risk following critical-level vaccination

Bhattacharyya

Ferrari

2016

Epidemiol. Infect.

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SUMMARYMeasles elimination goals have been adopted in a range of countries, sub-regions, and regions since the WHO declared an elimination goal by 2015 or 2020. All countries attempt to achieve and maintain high coverage through routine immunization programmes. This routine strategy, however, does not ensure the elimination goal of measles. Many developed countries, such as the United States, that have succeeded in interrupting measles transmission earlier, are now experiencing outbreaks with an increasing number of cases. Using a stochastic, age-structured model of measles vaccination dynamics, we explore and characterize the transient dynamics of measles susceptibility in the years following the implementation of routine vaccination at the herd immunity threshold. We demonstrate how a population could face risks of potentially large outbreaks even within few years of vaccination. We characterize different risk profiles depending on the incidence pattern in the years prior to vaccination. These results suggest that the classic critical vaccination threshold is necessary to achieve herd immunity, but not sufficient to prevent long periods of transient, super-critical dynamics. Our results suggest the need of future work for more careful monitoring of the impacts of current immunization programmes, and developing models that take into account more complicated vaccination strategies, demographic factors, and population movements.

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“…Trotz global zur Verfügung stehender Impfstoffe stellen sie weiterhin in vielen Ländern eine wesentliche Todesursache bei Kindern dar. So wurde geschätzt, dass etwa 45 Jahre nach Einführung der Impfung gegen Masern im Jahr 2010 immer noch fast 140.000 Kinder weltweit infolge dieser Infektion verstarben [1]. Der Mensch bildet das alleinige Reservoir für Masernund Rötelnviren, eine weltweite Eradikation der Viren ist also möglich.…”

Section: Hintergrundunclassified

Hot Spot: Epidemiologie der Masern und Röteln in Deutschland und Europa

Matysiak‐Klose

2013

Bundesgesundheitsbl.

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Assessment of the 2010 global measles mortality reduction goal: results from a model of surveillance data

Cited by 279 publications

References 14 publications

Prolonged persistence of measles virus RNA is characteristic of primary infection dynamics

Prolonged persistence of measles virus RNA is characteristic of primary infection dynamics

Age-specific mixing generates transient outbreak risk following critical-level vaccination

Hot Spot: Epidemiologie der Masern und Röteln in Deutschland und Europa

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