Assessment of the Climate Change Vulnerability of the Cities in Turkey

Abstract

Climate-related vulnerability indices are increasingly being utilized to enhance the creation of better disaster management strategies and to better understand and anticipate the effects of disasters related to climate change. This study evaluates the climate change vulnerability of the cities in Türkiye through focusing on their exposure, susceptibilities and adaptive capacities to climate change. Data from social, economic and environmental sub-indicators were assessed and most relevant indicators were aggregated with the goal of constructing a composite Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI). The CCVI includes six forms of capital leading to socio-economic and environmental sustainability i.e. social, public utility and transport, economics, land cover, meteorology and atmospheric conditions, and natural disaster capitals, and will be assessed combining each of these forms of capitals and its three dimensions (exposure, susceptibility and adaptive capacity). Stakeholder-driven structured methodology that discovers and ranks context-relevant indicators and sets weights for aggregating indicator scores by using the Best-Worst method (BWM) and stepwise weight assessment ratio analysis (SWARA) method are utilised. The indicators are aggregated through application of the BWM and SWARA weights using a linear aggregation method. From BWM and SWARA, the highest weights were obtained for meteorological conditions and land cover which are more than 0.36 and 0.22, respectively. The lowest weights were assigned to social characteristics and economy both of which were smaller than 0.10. The findings indicated that the cities on the northern, western and southern coasts as well as the cities in south-east region are the most vulnerable to climate change. The construction of CCVI can be used as part of decision-making process to minimize hazards and exposure to risk of climate change for the cities of Türkiye.