Assessment of the impacts of climat change on water supply system pipe failures

Abstract

Climate change is projected to have profound impacts on the resilience and sustainability of built infrastructure. This study aims to understand the impacts of climate change on water supply systems and to facilitate adaptive actions. A premium database maintained by the Cleveland Water Division, Cleveland, Ohio, USA is analyzed. It contains 29,621 pipe failure records of 51,832 pipes over the past 30 years, representing one of the largest dataset in current literature. From the database, pipe failure rate models have been developed for water pipes made of different types of materials at different ages. The influence of climate (temperature and precipitation) on fragility of water pipes are obtained. Based on the developed climate-fragility failure rate models, the impacts of climate change on the water systems located in different geographic regions are evaluated by predicting the failure rate and number of failures in the water systems in the next 80 years (2020 to 2100). Climate models are used to predict weather under different climate change scenarios. The results demonstrate that the impacts of climate change on water supply system are likely complicated and are dependent upon factors such as the geographic location, pipe material, pipe age, and maintenance strategies. Water pipes in the cold regions may experience fewer number breaks due to the warmer weather and less severe winter, whereas those located in the hot regions may experience more failures associated with more corrosion. Different pipe replacement strategies are compared, which demonstrate the importance of considering the aging of water supply system in future maintenance decisions. This study enriches current understandings on the impacts of climate change on the water systems. The results will help water utilities to design climate change adaptation strategies.

The Impact of Climate Change on the Failure of Water Supply Infrastructure: A Bibliometric Analysis of the Current State of Knowledge

“…These analyses took into account pipe materials, pipe diameters, weather factors (temperature, precipitation, snow cover, wind and humidity) and soil settlement. In recent years, research is continued to identify factors related to the impact of climate that influences the failure of water supply networks such as temperature fluctuations or sea level rises [7,12,[36][37][38][39].…”

“…The results of the analysis also indicate gaps in ongoing research, which may indicate research directions for other researchers. So far, most attention has been focused on issues related to the identification of factors related to the impact of climate on the failure rate of water distribution systems [7,12,[28][29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39]49,50]. A popular research topic was also the prediction of water supply network failures, taking into account the impact of climatic factors [40][41][42][43][44][45][46].…”

“…The most interesting research directions developed in recent years include research on the impact of climate change on water quality in water supply systems [10], research related to the increase in sea water levels and its impact on water supply infrastructure in coastal regions [39,64], and research on the impact of climate change on water demand [13]. Still, one of the most popular directions of research is the assessment of the impact of climatic factors on the failure rate of water pipes [7,[37][38][39]51].…”

Effects of water scarcity awareness and climate change belief on recycled water usage willingness: Evidence from New Mexico, United States

“…Climate change can exacerbate water stress in areas with minimal water resources, leading to increased competition for water and even conflicts (Gleick, 2014). In a recent study, Fan et al (2023) suggest climate change can also affect pipe failures in the US.…”