Assessment of the Impacts of Tropical Cyclone Fantala to Tanzania Coastal Line: Case Study of Zanzibar

Abstract

The study investigated the impacts of tropical cyclone (TC) Fantala (11 th to 27 th April, 2016) to the coastal areas of Tanzania, Zanzibar in particular. Daily reanalysis data consisting of wind speed, sea level pressure (SLP), sea surface temperatures (SSTs) anomaly, and relative humidity from the National Centres for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) were used to analyze the variation in strength of Fantala as it was approaching the Tanzania coastal line. In addition observed rainfall from Tanzania Meteorological Authority (TMA) at Zanzibar office, Global Forecasting System (GFS) rainfall estimates and satellite images were used to visualize the impacts of tropical cyclone Fantala to Zanzibar. The results revealed that, TC Fantala was associated with deepening/decreasing in SLP (from 1012-1010 mb) around the northwestern Madagascar and coastal Tanzania, whereas the mean SSTs was greater than 28˚C and an SSTs anomaly ranged from 0 to 2.3˚C. The vertical wind shear which ridged at Mozambican Channel and over northeastern Madagascar was high enough (12-15 ms −1) to support the intensifying of Fantala. The thermodynamic and dynamic conditions of Fantala influenced heavy rainfall of greater than 170 mm over most stations in Zanzibar. Moreover, Fantala disrupted the temporal variability of 2016 March to May (MAM) seasonal rainfall. Besides, more than 420 people were homeless, at least 3330 houses were destroyed, and about 2 people died. As for mainland Tanzania Fantala resulted in a death of 12 people in Kilimanjaro and Arusha, more than 315 houses were washed away by flooding leading to 13,933 people being homeless. Conclusively the study calls for an extensive research work based on examining and forecasting the TCs rainfall impacts and their contribution during the two rainfall seasons of OND and MAM in Tanzania.

Spatio-Temporal Assessment of the Performance of March to May 2020 Long Rains and Its Socio-Economic Implications in Northern Coast of Tanzania

“…Indeed, the essence of MAM, 2020 rainfall to have high contribution ranged from (50% -280%) to the long-term seasonal and monthly mean, is an indication of the high performance of this rainfall season compared to others as shown by the results in Figure 8(c) that was leading the five consecutive MAM seasons of 2016 to 2019. As for the frequency of the occurrence of the severe weather events of the index (50 mm/day) during MAM 2020, the presented results of 89 events during MAM 2020 are higher than that presented by [19] for December 2019 to February 2020 (DJF), but both this study and that of [11] indicate that the areas (NCT and Zanzibar) are very common for the occurrence of severe weather events which brought significant impacts on society.…”

“…The study area covers the NCT and the two Islands of Zanzibar i.e. Unguja and Pemba (Figure 1) which is well discussed by [9] and [11] [19] The climate of Zanzibar during March to May is dominated with higher average temperatures and mostly wet conditions which are highly influenced by either normal to abnormal ocean atmosphere coupled events including tropical cyclones [8]. Normally the Masika rainfall in Tanzania (NCT) and Zanzibar in particular is dominated by the immigration of Inter tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) which enhances the fluctuation of tropical low pressure belt as well as fluctuation of pressure systems, southeasterly, southwesterly, easterlies among others [6] [7] [9].…”

Assessment of the Off-season Rainfall of January to February 2020 and Its Socio Economic Implications in Tanzania: A Case Study of the Northern Coast of Tanzania

“…Unlike the long term DJF moisture distribution, the previous 2019-2020 DJF season shows that the moisture distribution at 850 mb was high (70 -100%) in most areas of the country and over the coastal strip (60 -70%) as well as improved moisture distribution over the ocean Figure 7c. This indicates that the season was dominated by low clouds such as cumulus clouds developing to cumulonimbus clouds as well as medium clouds [35,36,37] . As for 700 mb the moisture distribution for the 2019 -2020 Figure 7.…”

The Influence of Climate Change and Variability on Aircraft Take-off and Landing Performance; a Case Study of the Abeid Amani Karume International Airport-Zanzibar

“…For example, during 2017 and 2019, the low cloud contributed to 20 and 21 missed approaches events, while CBs and TSs caused 15 and 10 missed approach events. The presented higher records of diversion and missed approaches in 2017 and 2019 could be explained by the fact that 2019 was the wettest year with higher rainfall records especially during October to December (OND) and coincided to MAM 2021 seasonal rains as agreed by [19] [25].…”