Assessment of uncertainties in projecting future changes to extreme storm surge height depending on future SST and greenhouse gas concentration scenarios

Abstract

We assess uncertainties in projecting future changes in extreme storm surge height (SSH) based on typhoon data extracted from ensemble experiment results with four sea surface temperature (SST) conditions and three global warming scenarios using a single atmospheric global climate model. In particular, this study focus on typhoons passing around the Korean Peninsula (KP) defined as the region of 32 to 40° N and 122 to 132° E. It is predicted the number of the typhoons affecting the KP will decrease by 4~73% while their strength will increase by 0.8~1.4% under the given future conditions. The locations of genesis and lysis of the typhoons are expected to be shifted towards the northwest and northeast for all ensemble experiment conditions, respectively. However, the extent of their change varies depending on the future SST and global warming conditions. Storm surge simulations were carried out by using predicted typhoon data as an external force. It is found that future SST patterns and climate warming scenarios affect future typhoon characteristics, which influences values of extreme SSH and locations of the vulnerable area to storm surge under the future climate conditions. In particular, the values of extreme SSH and the locations of the vulnerable area to storm surge appear to be strongly influenced by both pathway and frequency of intense typhoons.

Generating reliable estimates of tropical-cyclone-induced coastal hazards along the Bay of Bengal for current and future climates using synthetic tracks

“…Hereby, the literature so far has mainly focused on deriving STC tracks and corresponding wind and pressure fields. Some work has been done exploring the effect of using these to derive offshore extremes for storm surge and wave heights compared to considering HTCs only (e.g., Meza-Padilla et al, 2015;Appendini et al, 2017) but with focus on different regions than the BoB (e.g., Australia -Haigh et al, 2014;Mexico -Meza-Padilla et al, 2015;northern Pacific Ocean -Mori and Takemi, 2016;Yang et al, 2020; or the USA - Lin et al, 2012;Appendini et al, 2017;Marsooli et al, 2019) or without taking waves into account, which is found to be an important factor leading to flooding in the northern BoB (Krien et al, 2017) and arguably worldwide.…”

Waves and Storm Surges of Tropical Cyclones Over the Arabian Sea: Future Projections and Uncertainty Analysis

“…-The impacts of uncertain parameters on real-time forecasting (e.g., Bastidas et al, 2016), including the wind field, model resolution, and input parameters. -The effect of uncertainty on the future projection of TC-generated waves and surges, including GCM physics, the spatial pattern of SST, and global warming scenarios (Yang et al, 2020). Considering the first approach, Lin and Chavas (2012) stated that the wind parameters are more effective on the surge height, in comparison with the sea surface drag.…”

“…They concluded that the CMIP5 worst scenario (i.e., RCP 8.5) lead to higher surge height, with the largest range of uncertainty. Yang et al (2020) estimated the uncertainties of future projection of the potential extreme surge height under the effect of future SST conditions and global warming scenarios. Murakami et al (2013) examined the effect of physics and SST change patterns on the variation of TC frequencies.…”