Assessment of Youth Unemployment, Security and Corruption in Nigeria: 1986-2015

Abstract

The paper examines impact of insecurity and corruption on unemployment in Nigeria. Unemployment has been on the increase and government's effort aimed at addressing the problem has been ineffective. This situation is compounded by the fact that high level of corruption prevented the provision of soft and hard infrastructures that would have mitigated against unemployment. An empirical assessment of this issue is scarce as existing literatures mainly focus on the relationship between economic growth and corruption as well as insecurity. The study employed both descriptive and econometric methods to analyze the data. The data obtained from various issues of the Central Bank of Nigeria statistical bulletins and annual reports as well as Transparency International covered the period 1986-2015. Consequently, the model was estimated using cointegration and error correction method. The study found that unemployment has a long-run relationship with corruption and government expenditure on defence. Thus, in the long run, unemployment had a positive and significant response to changes in corruption perception index (0.72%) and corruption rank (0.28%) contrary to its 2.63% response to government expenditure on defence. Finding also indicate that a 1% increase in corruption perception index, corruption rank as well as a dummy of insecurity led to increase in unemployment by about 0.26%, 0.98% and 0.27% respectively in the short run. Therefore, government may consider improvement in security and eradication of corruption in order to mitigate unemployment. Consequently, the fight against corruption should involves appointment of those with integrity to head the anti-graft agencies.

Effect of Macroeconomic Dynamics on Stock Market Return Volatility in Nigeria: Ardl Approach

“…Instead of taking uncalculated risks without guarantee, investors study how many factors affect their profits. This result agrees with Udi and Ohwofasa (2018) and Pole and Cavusoglu (2021) but disagrees with Omodero and Mlanga (2019).…”

“…Inflation, interest rates, exchange rates, risk premium changes, industrial production, and economic progress affect stock returns, according to arbitrage pricing theory. This result agrees withUdi and Ohwofasa (2018),Akwe, Garba, and Dang (2018), and opposesJohn (2019).…”

“…Since 1960 (Akwe, Garba, & Dang, 2018), the Nigeria Securities Exchange has had high and low shareholder returns, reflecting Macroeconomic variables in Nigeria caused by government decisions and demand and supply, besides the economy's political state, macroeconomic issues like inflation and interest rates have been linked to NSE stock returns. The Nigerian securities market faces high volatility, especially in the equity and bonds secondary markets, despite the NSE's liquidity and trade activity (Udi & Ohwofasa, 2018). Most studies on macroeconomic variable dynamics have found that SMKT return volatility is directly tied to macroeconomic factors.…”

“…Most investors believe macroeconomic events affect stock price volatility (Ong & Ng, 2018). Investors can predict SMKT performance using macroeconomic factors (Udi & Ohwofasa, 2018). Based on circumstances, the overall economy might affect SMKT performance positively or negatively (Harcourt, 2017).…”