Assessments of moisture fluxes east of the Andes in South America in a global warming scenario

Soares, Wagner R.; Marengo, José A.

doi:10.1002/joc.1800

Cited by 63 publications

(57 citation statements)

References 39 publications

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“…However, careful model validation with observational data is still a necessary prerequisite to ensure that the RCMs accurately portray present-day spatiotemporal climate variability, in particular along mountain ranges such as the Andes, where orography strongly affects seasonal distributions of precipitation. RCMs have been used successfully for climate change studies over South America (e.g., Marengo et al, 2009;Soares and Marengo, 2009), but their application over the Andes is still in its early stages (Urrutia and Vuille, 2009). A major drawback of RCMs is that they are computationally expensive and rather complex to implement.…”

Section: Climate Downscaling In Mountain Environmentsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…PRECIS is a limitedarea, regional climate model, based on the third generation Hadley Centre RCM (HadRM3) (Jones et al, 2004). A number of studies have used this GCM-RCM configuration for regional 21st century climate change assessments over Central and South America (Garreaud and Falvey, 2009;Karmalkar et al, 2008;Marengo et al, 2009;Soares and Marengo, 2009;Urrutia and Vuille, 2009).…”

Section: Climate Modellingmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Uncertainties in climate change projections and regional downscaling in the tropical Andes: implications for water resources management

Buytaert

Vuille

Dewulf

et al. 2010

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

196

125

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Abstract. Climate change is expected to have a large impact on water resources worldwide. A major problem in assessing the potential impact of a changing climate on these resources is the difference in spatial scale between available climate change projections and water resources management. Regional climate models (RCMs) are often used for the spatial disaggregation of the outputs of global circulation models. However, RCMs are time-intensive to run and typically only a small number of model runs is available for a certain region of interest. This paper investigates the value of the improved representation of local climate processes by a regional climate model for water resources management in the tropical Andes of Ecuador. This region has a complex hydrology and its water resources are under pressure. Compared to the IPCC AR4 model ensemble, the regional climate model PRECIS does indeed capture local gradients better than global models, but locally the model is prone to large discrepancies between observed and modelled precipitation. It is concluded that a further increase in resolution is necessary to represent local gradients properly. Furthermore, to assess the uncertainty in downscaling, an ensemble of regional climate models should be implemented. Finally, translating the climate variables to streamflow using a hydrological model constitutes a smaller but not negligible source of uncertainty.

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Section: Climate Downscaling In Mountain Environmentsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Climate Modellingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Uncertainties in climate change projections and regional downscaling in the tropical Andes: implications for water resources management

Buytaert

Vuille

Dewulf

et al. 2010

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

196

125

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The advantage of this technique, which is known as dynamic downscaling [13][14][15][16][17][18], is that it captures regional scale aspects appropriately. Important future climate change projection results with regional models for South America can be found in [10,[18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25]. As is the case with detection studies, future climate change projections using different models and CO 2 emissions scenarios point to consensus insofar as the warming projected for the late 21st century is concerned, but are divergent in respect to rainfall outlooks.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 97%

Detection and Projections of Climate Change in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Dereczynski¹,

Silva²,

Marengo³

2013

AJCC

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A study on the detection and future projection of climate change in the city of Rio de Janeiro is here presented, based on the analysis of indices of temperature and precipitation extremes. The aim of this study is to provide information on observed and projected extremes in support of studies on impacts and vulnerability assessments required for adaptation strategies to climate change. Observational data from INMET's weather stations and projections from INPE's EtaHadCM3 regional model are used. The observational analyses indicate that rainfall amount associated with heavy rain events is increasing in recent years in the forest region of Rio de Janeiro. An increase in both the frequency of occurrence and in the rainfall amount associated with heavy precipitation are projected until the end of the 21st Century, as are longer dry periods and shorter wet seasons. In regards to temperature, a warming trend is noted (both in past observations and future projections), with higher maximum air temperature and extremes. The average change in annual maximum (minimum) air temperatures may range between 2˚C and 5˚C (2˚C and 4˚C) above the current weather values in the late 21st Century. The warm (cold) days and nights are becoming more (less) frequent each year, and for the future climate (2100) it has been projected that about 40% to 70% of the days and 55% to 85% of the nights will be hot. Additionally, it can be foreseen that there will be no longer cold days and nights.

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“…Previous experiences of downscaling in Central and South America have been performed using various regional models (Eta, MM5, RegCM3, HadRM3, RCA). These regional models were forced using the HadAM3P, HadCM3P or ECHAM5 global models as boundary conditions, for high and low emission scenarios to generate climate projections out to the year 2100, for studies on change in climate and extremes (Marengo et al 2009a(Marengo et al , b, 2011bUrrutia and Vuille 2009;Vicuña et al 2011;Soares and Marengo 2009;Garreaud and Falvey 2009;Cabré et al 2010;Campbell et al 2011;Karmalkar et al 2011;Sorensson et al 2010;Chou et al 2011) in South America.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulation of rainfall anomalies leading to the 2005 drought in Amazonia using the CLARIS LPB regional climate models

et al. 2013

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The meteorological characteristics of the drought of 2005 in Amazonia, one of the most severe in the last 100 years were assessed using a suite of seven regional models obtained from the CLARIS LPB project. The models were forced with the ERA-Interim reanalyses as boundary conditions. We used a combination of rainfall and temperature observations and the low-level circulation and evaporation fields from the reanalyses to determine the climatic and meteorological characteristics of this particular drought. The models reproduce in some degree the observed annual cycle of precipitation and the geographical distribution of negative rainfall anomalies during the rainfall and temperature anomalies in DJF and MAM 2005 shows biases that are different among models. While some models simulated the observed negative rainfall anomalies over parts of western and southern Amazonia during DJF, others simulated positive rainfall departures over central Amazonia. The simulated circulation patterns indicate a weaker northeasterly flow from the tropical North Atlantic into Amazonia, and reduced flows from southern Amazonia into the La Plata basin in DJF, which is consistent with observations. In general, we can say that in some degree the regional models are able to capture the response to the forcing from the tropical Atlantic during the drought of 2005 in Amazonia. Moreover, extreme climatic conditions in response to anomalous low-level circulation features are also well captured, since the boundary conditions come from reanalysis and the models are largely constrained by the information provided at the boundaries. The analysis of the 2005 drought suggests that when the forcing leading to extreme anomalous conditions is associated with both local and non-local mechanisms (soil moisture feedbacks and remote SST anomalies, respectively) the models are not fully capable of representing these feedbacks and hence, the associated anomalies. The reason may be a deficient reproduction of the land-atmosphere interactions.

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Assessments of moisture fluxes east of the Andes in South America in a global warming scenario

Cited by 63 publications

References 39 publications

Uncertainties in climate change projections and regional downscaling in the tropical Andes: implications for water resources management

Uncertainties in climate change projections and regional downscaling in the tropical Andes: implications for water resources management

Detection and Projections of Climate Change in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Simulation of rainfall anomalies leading to the 2005 drought in Amazonia using the CLARIS LPB regional climate models

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