Assessments of Realization of Necessary Forces and Means for Recovery of the Damaged Security System in the Conditions of Crossing Statistical Hypothesis

Abstract

Emphasis is placed on building a complex feedback system that responds objectively to changing circumstances regarding damaged means and forces of combat operations, because otherwise the system becomes self-sufficient and may become incapable of performing tasks. The variants of change of a situation with insufficient working capacity of system in the conditions of stochastic crossing of signs of variants of sets of forces and means for restoration of working capacity of system, after a choice of the best from set of alternative variants are defined. The probabilities of realization of each of the options of measures that are alternatives for the restoration of the system as a whole are determined. The distinction between the options of forces and means for the possible scope of measures is made using the criterion of the ideal observer, taking into account the costs of implementing each of the alternatives with maximum levels of probability in the hypotheses that intersect. The method of determining the predicted estimates of the probability of implementing alternatives to restore a complex system of technical support as a whole, under the conditions of a certain number of identified options for additional forces and additional equipment to intensify the process of restoring the system as a whole. . The method of determining the necessary costs and forecasting the reliability of their implementation, the method of testing statistical hypotheses, was used during the long-term planning of activities to create a more effective system of ensuring any level of hierarchy. Keywords: systems of comprehensive support of troops' actions, adaptive recovery of support system, method of statistical testing of hypotheses, assessment of realization of necessary forces and means, restoration of damaged support system in conditions of intersection of statistical hypotheses on its recovery.