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AbstractIn this paper we examine the quantitative effects of margin regulation on volatility in asset markets. We consider a general equilibrium infinite-horizon economy with heterogeneous agents and collateral constraints. There are two assets in the economy which can be used as collateral for short-term loans. For the first asset the margin requirement is exogenously regulated while the margin requirement for the second asset is determined endogenously. In our calibrated economy, the presence of collateral constraints leads to strong excess volatility. Thus, a regulation of margin requirements may have stabilizing effects. However, in line with the empirical evidence on margin regulation in U.S. stock markets, we show that changes in the regulation of one class of assets may have only small effects on these assets' return volatility if investors have access to another (unregulated) class of collateralizable assets to take up leverage. In contrast, a countercyclical margin regulation of all asset classes in the economy has a very strong dampening effect on asset return volatility.Keywords: collateral constraints, general equilibrium, heterogeneous agents, margin requirements, Regulation T.JEL Classification Codes: D53, G01, G12, G18.ECB Working Paper 1698, July 2014 1
Non-Technical SummaryRegulating margin requirements or haircuts for securities financing transactions has for a long time been considered as a potential tool to limit the build-up of leverage and dampen volatility in financial markets. For example, following the US stock market crash in 1929 the Federal Reserve Board (FRB) was granted the power to set initial margin requirements for margin trading, i.e. investors building a leveraged position in securities using loans that are collateralised by the securities that are purchased. The margin requirement dictates how much investors can borrow against these securities. The FRB established Regulation T to set minimum margin requirements for such partially loan-financed transactions of exchange-traded securities. However, the majority of empirical studies analysing Regulation T did not provide substantial evidence that regulating margin requirements in stock markets had an economically significant impact on market volatility. Eighty years later, in the aftermath of the financial crisis of 2007-2009, it has again been argued that excessively low margin requirements or haircuts contributed both to the buildu...