Association between ambient temperature and COVID-19 infection in 122 cities from China

Xie, Jingui; Zhu, Yongjian

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138201

Cited by 741 publications

(742 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…As for other viruses, temperature and humidity seem to be factors with some influence on the spread of SARS-CoV-2, but recent studies led to contrasting results. In general, a negative relationship is found between air temperature and the spread of SARS-CoV-2 virus 13,14 , but a positive one 15 and a lack of effect 16 have also been reported. In the case of humidity, limited 17,18 , positive 19 and negative 13 effects on the infection rate have been reported.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 97%

Climatic factors influence COVID-19 outbreak as revealed by worldwide mortality

Quilodrán

Currat

Montoya‐Burgos

2020

Preprint

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The COVID-19 outbreak is triggering a global crisis that is challenging governments, health systems and the scientific community worldwide 1 . A central question in the pandemic is whether climatic factors modulate its progression. This information is key to epidemiologists and healthcare decision-makers for improving their management plans 2 .Previous attempts to assess the impact of climatic parameters have yielded ambiguous results, either because they were using geographically or temporally restricted data, or because they were comparing infection rates across countries, which were measured differently depending on local screening strategies. In March 2020, the spread of COVID-19 dramatically increased the number of countries recording deaths 3 , providing an opportunity to use mortality rate, which is measured more homogeneously across countries than infection rates, as a descriptor of the COVID-19 outbreak over a large latitudinal range. Here, using data recorded in 208 territories from 88 countries, we show that mortality rate is negatively influenced by warmer air temperature and positively affected by higher relative humidity. Each additional Celsius degree decreases mortality rate by ~4%, while a 1% increase in relative humidity raises . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. (which was not certified by peer review) : medRxiv preprint mortality rate by ~2%. Temperature is positively correlated with UV-index, for which one unit of increase results in a ~15% decrease in the mortality rate. We also show that other factors contribute to the dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak, such as the proportion of vulnerable age classes in the population, access to a non-overwhelmed health system, as well as governmental travel restrictions for controlling the spread of the disease. All of them are critical factors impacting the mortality rate of COVID-19. The influence of climatic factors is a warning to all southern hemisphere countries where winter is coming soon. Northern hemisphere countries should also be warned that climatic factors alone will likely not be sufficient to contain the disease.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 97%

Climatic factors influence COVID-19 outbreak as revealed by worldwide mortality

Quilodrán

Currat

Montoya‐Burgos

2020

Preprint

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“…Besides, population mobility has a significant effect on the COVID-19 epidemic (Kraemer et al, 2020). In addition, a recent study has shown an association of ambient temperature with the infection of COVID-19 (Xie and Zhu, 2020). However, the impact of short-term exposure to air pollution lacks careful consideration.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Here, ( ) indicates the log-transformed COVID-19 counts reported on day t in city i (added 1 to avoid taking the logarithm of 0) Zhu and Xie, 2020). is the intercept.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Meteorological factors during the same period were controlled for the possible confounding effect, including mean temperature ( ), relative humidity ( ℎ ), air pressure ( ) and wind speed ( ). (•) is the smooth function (thin plate spline function with the maximum 3 degrees of freedom) of a certain meteorological factor Wang et al, 2018;Zhu and Xie, 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Association between short-term exposure to air pollution and COVID-19 infection: Evidence from China

Zhu

Xie

Huang

et al. 2020

Science of The Total Environment

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953

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943

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The novel coronavirus pneumonia, namely COVID-19, has become a global Journal Pre-proof J o u r n a l P r e -p r o o f public health problem. Previous studies have found that air pollution is a risk factor for respiratory infection by carrying microorganisms and affecting body's immunity. This study aimed to explore the relationship between ambient air pollutants and the infection caused by the novel coronavirus. Daily confirmed cases, air pollution concentration and meteorological variables in 120 cities were obtained from January 23, 2020 to February 29, 2020 in China. We applied a generalized additive model to investigate the associations of six air pollutants (PM 2.5 , PM 10 , SO 2 , CO, NO 2 and O 3 ) with COVID-19 confirmed cases. We observed significantly positive associations of PM 2.5 , PM 10 , NO 2 and O 3 in the last two weeks with newly COVID-19 confirmed cases. A 10-μg/m 3 increase (lag0-14) in PM 2.5 , PM 10 , NO 2 , and O 3 was associated with a 2.24% (95% CI:1.02 to 3.46), 1.76% (95% CI: 0.89 to 2.63), 6.94% (95% CI: 2.38 to 11.51), and 4.76% (95% CI: 1.99 to 7.52) increase in the daily counts of confirmed cases, respectively. However, a 10-μg/m 3 increase (lag0-14) in SO 2 was associated with a 7.79% decrease (95% CI: -14.57 to -1.01) in COVID-19 confirmed cases. Our results indicate that there is a significant relationship between air pollution and COVID-19 infection, which could partially explain the effect of national lockdown and provide implications for the control and prevention of this novel disease.

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“…However, there has been a lively debate in the literature over whether higher temperatures modulate coronavirus infectivity and spreading. Recent evidence suggests that temperatures had a negative linear relationship with the number of con rmed COVID-19 cases [8][9][10]. Conversely, other studies do not support the hypothesis that high temperatures can reduce the transmission of COVID-19 [11].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 92%

High temperature slows coronavirus disease 2019 transmission rate: A within and among country analysis

Kotsiou

Kotsios

Lampropoulos

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Background: The pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a global issue. The relationships between temperature and incidence, transmission, or survival of many enveloped coronaviruses such as severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) have been previously widely investigated. However, there has been a lively debate in the literature over whether higher temperatures modulate coronaviruses’ infectivity and spreading, which sets a fertile ground for research on a global scale. In this study, we aimed to investigate the relationship between day-to-day temperature variability and daily COVID-19 incidence rate, as well as the time is taken to reach the total number of 200 confirmed COVID-19 cases within the worst-hit countries by the pandemic. Methods: A within and among countries analysis of the relationship between daily fluctuations in the number of new confirmed COVID-19 cases and temperature for the period starting from 31st December 2019 to 29th March 2020, was conducted. The 46 worst-hit countries by the pandemic were included in the analysis.Results: What emerges from our results is that daily new COVID-19 cases were negatively correlated with daily temperature variation. Moreover, higher temperatures were positively correlated with a longer time to reach a standard number of confirmed COVID-19 cases within countries. Notably, countries with daily average temperatures below 20°C had a faster transmission rate than countries with higher daily average temperatures. Conclusions: Our study provides further insights into the hypothesis that there is an association between temperature and rate of COVID-19 spread within a country.

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Association between ambient temperature and COVID-19 infection in 122 cities from China

Cited by 741 publications

References 31 publications

Climatic factors influence COVID-19 outbreak as revealed by worldwide mortality

Climatic factors influence COVID-19 outbreak as revealed by worldwide mortality

Association between short-term exposure to air pollution and COVID-19 infection: Evidence from China

High temperature slows coronavirus disease 2019 transmission rate: A within and among country analysis

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