We sought to assess how much of the variation in incidence of colorectal neoplasia is explained by baseline fecal hemoglobin concentration (FHbC) and also to assess the additional predictive value of conventional risk factors. We enrolled subjects aged 40 years and over who attended screening for colorectal cancer with the fecal immunochemical test (FIT) in Keelung community-based integrated screening program. The accelerated failure time model was used to train the clinical weights of covariates in the prediction model. Datasets from two external communities were used for external validation. The area under curve (AUC) for the model containing only FHbC was 83.0% (95% CI: 81.5-84.4%), which was considerably greater than the one containing only conventional risk factors (65.8%, 95% CI: 64.2-67.4%). Adding conventional risk factors did not make significant additional contribution (p 5 0.62, AUC 5 83.5%, 95% CI: 82.1-84.9%) to the predictive model with FHbC only. Males showed a stronger linear dose-response relationship than females, yielding gender-specific FHbC predictive models. External validation confirms these results. The high predictive ability supported by a dose-dependent relationship between baseline FHbC and the risk of developing colorectal neoplasia suggests that FHbC may be useful for identifying cases requiring closer postdiagnosis clinical surveillance as well as being an early indicator of colorectal neoplasia risk in the general population. Our findings may also make contribution to the development of the FHbC-guided screening policy but its pros and cons in connection with cost and effectiveness of screening should be evaluated before it can be applied to population-based screening for colorectal cancer.While the fecal immunochemical test (FIT) is widely used in population-based screening for colorectal neoplasia and is effective in reducing colorectal cancer mortality through early detection, 1-12 it has been not yet known whether the detailed information on quantitative fecal hemoglobin concentration (FHbC) available with the FIT might also be of use for predicting the risk of colorectal neoplasia. Unfortunately, because clinical practice is to select subjects with FHbC greater than a set cut-off for further clinical investigation the precise value of FHbC, although measured and often reported, is largely neglected. The previous study reported that baseline FHbC can be predictive of incident colorectal neoplasia among screening participants who test negative at the first screen. 13 Nonetheless, it is not possible to fully investigate the relationship between risk of developing colorectal neoplasia and having a high FHbC because the natural history of the disease in those with FHbC levels above the cut off is interrupted owing to the administration of medical regime. To assess the predictive power of FHbC as a measure of risk of colorectal neoplasia one must develop a risk model based on FHbC (measured as a continuous variable at baseline in those testing both negative and positive according t...