Following an estimated 60% decline in population abundance in early 1993, recovery of the Pacific herring Clupea pallasii population of Prince William Sound, Alaska, USA, has been impaired by disease. Comprehensive epidemiological study from 1994 through 2002 validated an age-structured assessment (ASA) model of disease and population abundance; from 2003 to 2006, the impact of disease was modeled by analyzing only 2 lesions: ulcers and white foci in the heart. The ASA model identified increased natural mortality since 1993 that can be explained by (1) epidemics associated with ulcers (prevalence about 3%) and the North American strain of viral hemorrhagic septicemia virus (VHSV Type IVa; prevalence up to 14%) in 1994 and 1998 and (2) relatively high prevalence of the mesomycetozoean Ichthyophonus hoferi from 1994 through 2006, including epidemics with the greatest sample prevalence in 2001 (38%, by histopathology) and 2005 (51%, estimated histopathology prevalence). Fourteen other parasites occurred at prevalence >10%, but none were considered significant contributors to fish mortality. We predict that if natural mortality after 1994 had returned to background levels that best fit the model from 1980 to 1992 (0.25 yr -1 ), population biomass in 2006 would have been 3 times the best estimate, despite relatively poor recruitment since 1994. In conclusion, disease information can be used to explain and predict changes in populations that have confounded traditional fisheries assessment.KEY WORDS: Pacific herring 路 Clupea pallasii 路 Viral hemorrhagic septicemia virus 路 VHSV Type IVa 路 Ulcers 路 Ichthyophonus hoferi 路 Age-structured assessment model 路 Population-level response
Resale or republication not permitted without written consent of the publisherDis Aquat Org 90: [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14] 2010 are 3 to 5 yr old, live for about 12 yr, and weigh up to about 250 g. Mature fish spawn every year, but for reasons probably related to environmental conditions (Williams & Quinn 2000), strong year-classes recruit into the adult population only about once every 4 yr. The most accurate biomass estimates are made in early spring, when fish aggregations move to shallow waters to spawn. After spawning, fish disperse and do not reaggregate near spawning areas until late fall. Feeding is minimal during the winter (Foy & Norcross 2001).Four years after the March 1989 'Exxon Valdez' oil spill in Prince William Sound, about 60% of the Pacific herring population died during the winter of 1992/1993. Death was attributed to poor food availability in 1992, which resulted in poor fish condition the following winter (Pearson et al. 1999, Elston & Meyers 2009). The weakened fish had 2 types of lesions or pathogens that are commonly associated with population stress: (1) cutaneous ulcers and (2) the North American strain of viral hemorrhagic septicemia virus (VHSV Type IVa) (Meyers et al. 1994, Pearson et al. 1999, Carls et al. 2002). An alternative hypothesis attributes a greater proportion of th...