Asthma

Primary Care Asthma Attack Prediction Models for Adults: A Systematic Review of Reported Methodologies and Outcomes

“…Twelve studies identified in the review by Loymans et al 12 were published between 1997 and 2016. Thirteen additional studies were added in our review, including one additional study in 2004 (which used a three-level risk stratification, but discussed outcomes in which the top risk-level is compared to the lowest and middle risk levels 15 ) and twelve between 2017 and 2023 ( Table 2 ). Henceforth, studies will be referred to by the surnames of the lead authors.…”

“…Henceforth, studies will be referred to by the surnames of the lead authors. There were two papers by Luo et al (denoted [A] 16 and [B] 17 ) and Schatz et al (denoted [A] 15 and [B] 18 ).…”

“…This definition is aligned with the American Thoracic Society and European Respiratory Society (ATS/ERS) joint task force definition of a severe exacerbation. 40 The fifth category was a composite of emergency department presentation and/or hospitalization, used by seven studies (Tong, 23 Luo [A], 16 Luo [B], 17 Osborne, 33 Schatz [A], 15 Peters, 35 and Lieu 37 ). The sixth category was a composite of systemic steroids and/or hospitalization, used only by Schleich.…”

“…Only 2.9% of study participants had an emergency department visit in the Zein 25 study, and between 1.2 and 1.8% of participants had an inpatient admission in the studies by Noble, 22 Zein, 25 Schatz [B], 18 and Grana 39 ( Table 2 ). In the composite of emergency department presentation and/or hospitalization, the five studies looking at the general asthma population over 12 months reported an incidence of between 1.7% and 6.9% (Tong, 23 Luo [A], 16 Luo [B], 17 Schatz [A], 15 and Lieu 37 ), while the study looking at the severe asthma population in the same time frame reported an incidence risk of 8.5% (Miller 34 ). The Osborne 33 study, which looked at the general asthma population over 30 months, reported an incidence risk of 18.2%.…”

“…Eight used a random split sample (Inselman, 19 Jiao, 20 Lisspers, 21 Martin, 26 Xiang, 28 Bateman, 30 Osborne, 33 and Lieu 37 ), five used a temporal split – reserving datum from a later year for testing (Tong, 23 Luo [A], 16 Luo [B], 17 Miller, 34 and Grana 39 ), two used cross-validation (Wu 24 and Sato 32 ), and one used bootstrap resampling (Schatz [B] 18 ). Six studies used external validation (Wu, 24 Schatz [A], 15 Noble, 22 Zein, 25 Schleich, 27 and Loymans 29 ).…”