Asymmetric But Uneven: The China-India Conventional Military Balance

Mastro, Oriana Skylar; Tarapore, Arzan

doi:10.2139/ssrn.3562361

Cited by 3 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 0 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…During periods where the two states are in greater conflict, Chinese incursions are more likely, consistent with previous findings (Axelrod and Hamilton, 1981, Goldstein and Freeman, 1990, Ward and Widmaier, 1982. Though there has been much speculation in the press (Mastro and Tarapore, 2020) that Indian deployments along the shared CH-IN border and/or Chinese construction in the same regions act as triggers for Chinese incursions (Tellis, 2020), our findings are mixed. Chinese construction near the border is positively linked to an incursion 5 months later but inversely linked to an incursion 2 months later.…”

contrasting

confidence: 55%

Understanding the timing of Chinese border incursions into India

Greene

Tornquist

Fokkink

et al. 2021

Humanit Soc Sci Commun

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Since the 1960s China and India have engaged in a dispute about the demarcation of their shared border. This territorial dispute led to a brief war in 1962, and recurring flare-ups over the following decades, including during the summer of 2020. The potential for further escalation of this dispute poses significant risks to Indian and Chinese civilians, US foreign policy objectives, and the stability of the international economic system. Despite the importance of this dispute, there have been relatively few attempts to understand the correlates of Chinese incursions. This paper addresses this important question by leveraging past work on the study of conflicts between states to derive a set of testable explanations about the impact of China–India relations, internal political affairs, international political issues, and domestic economic factors on the likelihood of incursions. The study uses 15 years of original data on monthly Chinese incursions into India along with a monthly dataset containing 18 independent variables, to develop a detailed statistical understanding of the factors that trigger Chinese incursions across the Indian border with a lead time between 1 and 6 months. The quantitative study finds that Chinese incursions are more likely when Chinese leadership is early in their tenure, but more likely when Indian leadership is in the later stages of their tenure. The results also show that closer cooperation between India and the US may trigger additional Chinese incursions into India. Finally, lower consumer confidence in the Chinese economy is consistently related to an increased likelihood of incursions. These findings have implications for the maintenance of peace and India’s national security policies. Periods of Chinese uncertainty, particularly when their economy exhibits weakness and when Chinese leaders are in the early stages of their tenure are more likely to experience incursions. Further, the strengthening of the US–Indian alliance, as well as increased conflict between India and Pakistan, create the potential for an elevated risk of incursions. During these periods India should likely be on higher alert, while India and Indian allies should signal the importance of diplomatic solutions for the dispute.

show abstract

contrasting

confidence: 55%

Understanding the timing of Chinese border incursions into India

Greene

Tornquist

Fokkink

et al. 2021

Humanit Soc Sci Commun

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…In particular, Singh’s government began raising two mountain divisions (60,000 troops) for defensive operations and one mountain strike corps (30,000 troops) for offensive operations against China (Pandit 2014 ). Although India may enjoy tactical superiority in many contingencies involving China (O’Donnell and Bollfrass 2020 : 8–12), overall India seems to be falling behind China (Mastro and Tarapore 2020 ).…”

Section: The Border Disputementioning

confidence: 99%

India’s China strategy under Modi continuity in the management of an asymmetric rivalry

Pardesi

2021

Int Polit

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

India’s strategy toward China under Modi needs to be understood as the approach of a rising power (in Asia) that has been in relative decline vis-à-vis China. Consequently, Modi’s India has adopted a mixed strategy toward its asymmetric rival China that includes accommodation / cooperation at the multilateral level (e.g., the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank), competition at the regional level (in the Indo-Pacific), rejection of China’s unilateral initiatives (such as the Belt and Road Initiative), and deterrence (along the Himalayas and in the Indian Ocean). This seemingly inchoate issue-based approach is function of material and ideational factors. In addition to safeguarding its sovereignty and territorial integrity, India aims to prevent Chinese hegemony in Asia while creating strategic space for itself as a great power in a multipolar Asia. However, India lacks a viable strategy to compete/catch-up with China economically, and therefore India’s overall response will be a constant challenge for its diplomacy.

show abstract

“…A large number of studies have confirmed the reversal of the Keynesian defense postulates to reduce socio-economic suffering [12][13][14][15][16]. Regional differences are likely to increase military tension between countries due to their endeavoring to win the arms race, and this create an imbalance of security issues, which need to be harmonized through strategic safety arms supply and by promoting global peace dialogues [17,18]. The non-linear relationships also hold in many instances in the earlier literature.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Security Challenges and Air Quality Management in India: Emissions Inventory and Forecasting Estimates

et al. 2021

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The defense and peace literature have focused mainly on the military-growth nexus, with little attention paid to the environmental sustainability agenda, which is impacted by increased global arms transfers. The supply of lead-containing ammunition generates complex gas mixtures (including CO2 emissions) and particulates that harm the healthcare sustainability agenda. Based on the significance of the subject matter, the study uses the Indian economy as a case study, with a significant rate of arms transfers associated with higher carbon emissions. The study analyzed data from more than four decades, from 1975 to 2020. Data on arms imports, military personnel, and military expenditures are used to evaluate the ‘ammunition emissions function’. It corresponds to the three research hypotheses, namely, the ‘emissions-defense burden hypothesis’ (arms transfers increase carbon emissions), the ‘emissions-cleaner hypothesis’ (arms transfers reduce carbon emissions), and the ‘emissions-asymmetric hypothesis’ (positive and negative shocks of arms transfers either support the ‘defense burden hypothesis’ or ‘cleaner hypothesis’). The non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) results confirmed the ’emissions-defense burden hypothesis‘ in the long run, as positive and negative shocks from arms imports increase carbon emissions. However, in the short run, positive arms imports increase carbon emissions while negative arms imports decrease carbon emissions. Furthermore, the findings supported the ’emissions-cleaner hypothesis‘ in the relationship between armed forces personnel and carbon emissions. The findings imply that the positive and negative shocks experienced by armed forces personnel reduce carbon emissions in the short and long run. Positive shocks to military spending support the ’emissions-defense burden hypothesis‘ in the short run; however, the results vanished when negative shocks to military spending supported the ’emissions-spillover hypothesis‘ (lowering military spending reduces carbon emissions and increases economic productivity) in the short and long run. The country’s unsustainable economic activities are viewed as a negative factor contributing to long-term carbon emissions increases. The negative shocks of armed forces personnel and positive arms imports would almost certainly have a significant long-term impact on carbon emissions. As a result, the ‘treadmill theory of destruction’ has been confirmed in a country. The study concludes that lead-free ammunition and managing ammunition safety are beneficial to a country’s environmental sustainability agenda.

show abstract

Asymmetric But Uneven: The China-India Conventional Military Balance

Cited by 3 publications

References 0 publications

Understanding the timing of Chinese border incursions into India

Understanding the timing of Chinese border incursions into India

India’s China strategy under Modi continuity in the management of an asymmetric rivalry

Security Challenges and Air Quality Management in India: Emissions Inventory and Forecasting Estimates

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About