Asymmetric effects of militarization on economic growth and environmental degradation: fresh evidence from Pakistan and India

Ullah, Sana; Andlib, Zubaria; Majeed, Muhammad Tariq; Sohail, Sidra; Chishti, Muhammad Zubair

doi:10.1007/s11356-020-11142-y

Cited by 54 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 71 publications

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“…Such types of models are commonly known as nonlinear ARDL models, Shin et al (2014) establish that both the linear and nonlinear ARDL models could be estimated by OLS methods with similar diagnostic tests. For some other econometric application of nonlinear ARDL models, see Ullah et al (2020a), Ullah et al (2020b), and Ullah et al (2020c). After the estimation (7), we can perform some extra test of asymmetric assumptions.…”

Section: Model Methodology and Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Pakistan management of green transportation and environmental pollution: a nonlinear ARDL analysis

Sohail

Ullah

Majeed

et al. 2021

Environ Sci Pollut Res

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Modern advances in nonlinear modeling have exposed that nonlinear models yield more robust results compared with linear models. Research on the effect of air-railway transportation on environmental pollution has now arrived into a new way of asymmetry analysis and captured the real issue among the nexus. This study aims to inspect the asymmetric impact of air-railway transportation on environmental pollution in Pakistan by using annual time series data from 1991 to 2019. The findings show that positive shock in air passenger carried and railway passenger carried increases carbon emissions, which implies that 1% increase in air passenger carried (railway passenger carried) enhances environmental pollution by 0.21% (0.32%) in long run in Pakistan. While positive shock in railway passengers carried increases environmental pollution and negative shock in railway passengers carried decreases the environmental pollution in the short run. The outcomes have also confirmed the short- and long-run asymmetries in Wald statistics. The findings are country-specific and it would be regionally specific.

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Section: Model Methodology and Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Pakistan management of green transportation and environmental pollution: a nonlinear ARDL analysis

Sohail

Ullah

Majeed

et al. 2021

Environ Sci Pollut Res

Self Cite

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“…To facilitate comparison, the ARDL and ARDL-ECM techniques are utilized to estimate the long-term and short-term correlations between variables in the USA and China, and the detailed estimations are summarized in Table 6 and Table 7. Following Ullah et al (2021), this study applied the Akaike information criteria (AIC) and used a maximum of four lags for the data of the model. In the case of longrun correlation, we observe that the coefficients of EPU are insignificant under the symmetrical framework in both the USA and China, which suggests that there is no evidence of any meaningful relationship between EPU and carbon emissions.…”

Section: The Linear Ardl Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

The symmetric and asymmetric effects of economic policy uncertainty and oil prices on carbon emissions in the USA and China: evidence from the ARDL and non-linear ARDL approaches

Zhang

Huang

2021

Environ Sci Pollut Res

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The environmental consequences of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and oil price changes have attracted much attention in recent years, but few studies have estimated the asymmetric impact. This research investigates the symmetric and asymmetric effects of EPU and oil prices on carbon emissions in the USA and China. Based on monthly data from 1995:1 to 2019:12, we address this issue by applying the ARDL and non-linear ARDL cointegration methodology. The symmetric results show that the change in EPU has no evident impact on carbon emissions in the short and long run for the USA and China, and oil prices have a lag effect in this regard. The non-linear ARDL estimation documents significant asymmetric effects of EPU and oil prices. Specifically, the negative change in EPU facilitates emissions in the USA in the long and short run, and a unit increase in EPU increases emissions by 2.24% and 4.95%, respectively, whereas its positive change does not produce any significant effect. Carbon emissions in China are significantly and positively affected by the positive change in EPU only over the long run, and an increase in EPU increases emissions by 0.04%. Furthermore, the positive shock of oil prices significantly and positively influences emissions in the long run, and a unit increase in this factor increases emissions by 15.73% and 0.44% in the USA and China, respectively. Moreover, the short-term effect of the negative shock of oil prices exhibits a lag effect. The empirical results provide a practical reference for the USA and China to craft robust policies on emission cutting.

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“…However, in the long run, the negative shocks of military expenditures decrease carbon emissions and support the spillover effect of increasing economic productivity in a country. The results, supported by the earlier studies that argued that environmental pollution could be substantially decreased by increasing energy efficiency in the arms transfers [38], further escalate global income to spend an enormous amount on pollution control strategies [37]. Bradford and Stoner [66] claimed that wealthier nations who spend more defense budget allocation are indirectly associated with the increased carbon emissions, and that this needs to be revitalized through cleaner weapon technologies.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 58%

“…Second, the study explored the asymmetric causation of arms imports, armed forces personnel, and military expenditures related to carbon emissions to assess the deviation of the military factors towards carbon emissions into positive and negative multiplier effects. The earlier studies worked on symmetric relationships between military expenditures and growthspecific factors while limiting work on a green developmental agenda [34][35][36][37]. Finally, the study assesses the inter-temporal forecasting relationship between military factors and carbon emissions, which was previously powerless to explain the relationships in a given country.…”

Section: Hypothesis 4 (H4)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Security Challenges and Air Quality Management in India: Emissions Inventory and Forecasting Estimates

et al. 2021

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The defense and peace literature have focused mainly on the military-growth nexus, with little attention paid to the environmental sustainability agenda, which is impacted by increased global arms transfers. The supply of lead-containing ammunition generates complex gas mixtures (including CO2 emissions) and particulates that harm the healthcare sustainability agenda. Based on the significance of the subject matter, the study uses the Indian economy as a case study, with a significant rate of arms transfers associated with higher carbon emissions. The study analyzed data from more than four decades, from 1975 to 2020. Data on arms imports, military personnel, and military expenditures are used to evaluate the ‘ammunition emissions function’. It corresponds to the three research hypotheses, namely, the ‘emissions-defense burden hypothesis’ (arms transfers increase carbon emissions), the ‘emissions-cleaner hypothesis’ (arms transfers reduce carbon emissions), and the ‘emissions-asymmetric hypothesis’ (positive and negative shocks of arms transfers either support the ‘defense burden hypothesis’ or ‘cleaner hypothesis’). The non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) results confirmed the ’emissions-defense burden hypothesis‘ in the long run, as positive and negative shocks from arms imports increase carbon emissions. However, in the short run, positive arms imports increase carbon emissions while negative arms imports decrease carbon emissions. Furthermore, the findings supported the ’emissions-cleaner hypothesis‘ in the relationship between armed forces personnel and carbon emissions. The findings imply that the positive and negative shocks experienced by armed forces personnel reduce carbon emissions in the short and long run. Positive shocks to military spending support the ’emissions-defense burden hypothesis‘ in the short run; however, the results vanished when negative shocks to military spending supported the ’emissions-spillover hypothesis‘ (lowering military spending reduces carbon emissions and increases economic productivity) in the short and long run. The country’s unsustainable economic activities are viewed as a negative factor contributing to long-term carbon emissions increases. The negative shocks of armed forces personnel and positive arms imports would almost certainly have a significant long-term impact on carbon emissions. As a result, the ‘treadmill theory of destruction’ has been confirmed in a country. The study concludes that lead-free ammunition and managing ammunition safety are beneficial to a country’s environmental sustainability agenda.

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Asymmetric effects of militarization on economic growth and environmental degradation: fresh evidence from Pakistan and India

Cited by 54 publications

References 71 publications

Pakistan management of green transportation and environmental pollution: a nonlinear ARDL analysis

Pakistan management of green transportation and environmental pollution: a nonlinear ARDL analysis

The symmetric and asymmetric effects of economic policy uncertainty and oil prices on carbon emissions in the USA and China: evidence from the ARDL and non-linear ARDL approaches

Security Challenges and Air Quality Management in India: Emissions Inventory and Forecasting Estimates

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