Asymptomatic transmission shifts epidemic dynamics

Lv, Jinlong; Guo, Shuaiqi; Cui, Jinǵan; Tian, Jianjun Paul

doi:10.3934/mbe.2021005

Cited by 6 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 17 publications

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“…We have lim t→∞ ( Ṡ(t) + Ė(t)) = 0 by using the similar method as in [20], and hence lim t→∞ E(t) = 0. Thus, it follows from model ( 13) that lim t→∞…”

Section: Stability Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Cui et al [10] presented a short-term model of COVID-19 transmission, and studied the final size of COVID-19 in Wuhan and Guangzhou, respectively. Lv et al [20] proposed long-term and short-term mathematical models to illustrate the impact of asymptomatic transmission on endemic. According to the research of McCallum et al [21], if each compartment in the model represented the actual number of population rather than the density of population, the standard incidence rate at this time would better represent the transmission rate of pathogens.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This method makes our research more practical and the numerical fitting accuracy is higher. According to [20], partial derivatives of (3) with respect to parameters can reflect some information about COVID-19 transmission. Since this paper focuses on the impact of asymptomatic infections b, 1 − p and quarantine measures q 1 , q 2 on the transmission of COVID-19, we Tab.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Dynamics of COVID-19 models with asymptomatic infections and quarantine measures

Guo

Yang

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Considering the propagation characteristics of COVID-19 in different regions, the dynamics analysis and numerical demonstration of long-term and short-term models of COVID-19 are carried out, respectively. The long-term model is devoted to investigate the global stability of COVID-19 model with asymptomatic infections and quarantine measures. By using the limit system of the model and Lyapunov function method, it is shown that the COVID-19-free equilibrium V 0 is globally asymptotically stable if the control reproduction number Rc < 1 and globally attractive if Rc = 1, which means that COVID-19 will die out; the COVID-19 equilibrium V∗ is globally asymptotically stable if Rc > 1, which means that COVID-19 will be persistent. In particular, to obtain the local stability of V∗ , we use proof by contradiction and the properties of complex modulus with some novel details, and we prove the weak persistence of the system to obtain the global attractivity of V∗ . Moreover, the final size of the corresponding short-term model is calculated and the stability of its multiple equilibria is analyzed. Numerical simulations of COVID-19 cases show that quarantine measures and asymptomatic infections have a non-negligible impact on the transmission of COVID-19 2020 MSC: 34D23, 37N25, 92D30

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“…We have lim t→∞ ( Ṡ(t) + Ė(t)) = 0 by using the similar method as in [20], and hence lim t→∞ E(t) = 0. Thus, it follows from model ( 13) that lim t→∞…”

Section: Stability Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Dynamics of COVID-19 models with asymptomatic infections and quarantine measures

Guo

Yang

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Effect of Non-homogeneous Mixing and Asymptomatic Individuals on Final Epidemic Size and Basic Reproduction Number in a Meta-Population Model

Cui

Guo

2022

Bull Math Biol

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To uncover the effective interventions during the pandemic period, a novel mathematical model, which incorporates separate compartments for incubation and asymptomatic individuals, has been developed in this paper. On the basis of a general mixing, final size relation and next-generation matrix are derived for a meta-population model by introducing the matrix blocking. The final size ( ) and the basic reproduction number ( ) are no longer a simple monotonous relationship. The analytical results of heterogeneity illustrate that activity is more sensitive than the others. And the proportion of asymptomatic individuals is a key factor for final epidemic size compared to the regulatory factor. Furthermore, the impact of preferential contact level on and is comparatively complex. The isolation can effectively reduce the final size, which further verifies its effectiveness. When vaccination is considered, the mixing methods maybe influence the doses of vaccination used and its effective. Moreover, using the present predictive model, we can provide the valuable reference about identifying the ideal strategies to curb the pandemic disease.

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A cholera model coupling within-host and between-host with age-dependent and asymptomatic infections

Yin,

Wu,

Zhang

et al. 2024

Journal of the Franklin Institute

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Asymptomatic transmission shifts epidemic dynamics

Cited by 6 publications

References 17 publications

Dynamics of COVID-19 models with asymptomatic infections and quarantine measures

Dynamics of COVID-19 models with asymptomatic infections and quarantine measures

Effect of Non-homogeneous Mixing and Asymptomatic Individuals on Final Epidemic Size and Basic Reproduction Number in a Meta-Population Model

A cholera model coupling within-host and between-host with age-dependent and asymptomatic infections

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