At what frequency of vaccination do the vaccinated potentially pose an equal risk to the unvaccinated for transmission of SARS-CoV-2 inside restaurants in New York City?

Abstract

From August 2021 to 7 March 2022, New York City prohibited indoor dining in restaurants selectively for persons who had not received a Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccine. However, vaccinated persons may also be actively infected and potentially transmit severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV‑2). Based on assuming a 7:1 ratio of COVID-19 cases in New York State for the unvaccinated versus the vaccinated, it can be estimated that when 87.5% of adults in New York City are vaccinated, the rate of unsuspected SARS-CoV‑2 infections (asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic) among vaccinated adults going to restaurants would be equivalent to that for the unvaccinated.