Atmospheric and human‐induced impacts on temporal variability of water level extremes in the Taihu Basin, China

Wang, Yuefeng; Tabari, Hossein; Xu, Youpeng; Willems, Patrick

doi:10.1111/jfr3.12539

Cited by 11 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 56 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…However, given the short observational record, the complexity of multivariate physical and ecological variability, and the inability to satisfactorily model these complex interactions, mechanistic understanding of ecological correlations with climate indices remains poor. As a result, the PDO and NPGO indices are commonly employed as covariates in correlative studies that fit statistical models to estimate the effects of climate variability for fisheries management (25,27,28), hydrology (29)(30)(31), agriculture (32)(33)(34), and economic planning (35,36). Statistical approaches commonly used in these correlative studies may produce era-dependent errors in inference when confronted with nonstationary relationships of the kind we document here (14,26,37,38).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The changing physical and ecological meanings of North Pacific Ocean climate indices

Litzow

Hunsicker

Bond

et al. 2020

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Climate change is likely to change the relationships between commonly used climate indices and underlying patterns of climate variability, but this complexity is rarely considered in studies using climate indices. Here, we show that the physical and ecological conditions mapping onto the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index and North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO) index have changed over multidecadal timescales. These changes apparently began around a 1988/1989 North Pacific climate shift that was marked by abrupt northeast Pacific warming, declining temporal variance in the Aleutian Low (a leading atmospheric driver of the PDO), and increasing correlation between the PDO and NPGO patterns. Sea level pressure and surface temperature patterns associated with each climate index changed after 1988/1989, indicating that identical index values reflect different states of basin-scale climate over time. The PDO and NPGO also show time-dependent skill as indices of regional northeast Pacific ecosystem variability. Since the late 1980s, both indices have become less relevant to physical–ecological variability in regional ecosystems from the Bering Sea to the southern California Current. Users of these climate indices should be aware of nonstationary relationships with underlying climate variability within the historical record, and the potential for further nonstationarity with ongoing climate change.

show abstract

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The changing physical and ecological meanings of North Pacific Ocean climate indices

Litzow

Hunsicker

Bond

et al. 2020

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Climate change would cause an increase in annual runoff of 16.2%, and land use change would cause relatively larger increase of 27.4% by the 2050s. Moreover, a conclusion of runoff changing more significantly in the rice season (the main time for hydraulic structure operation), strengthen the evidence of the huge impact of the engineering operation on runoff in the lowland watersheds (Y. Wang, Tabari, Xu, & Willems, 2019). Similarly, there is no consistent significant correlation between discharge and precipitation, mainly related to water level control system setting for polders.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 61%

“…These conclusions are in line with the findings of B. F. Li et al (2020), where the hilly region occupies nearly 70% of the basin and belongs to a warm temperate zone. In the lowland Wang, Tabari, Xu, & Willems, 2019). Similarly, there is no consistent significant correlation between discharge and precipitation, mainly related to water level control system setting for polders.…”

Section: Uncertainty Analysismentioning

confidence: 90%

Quantifying the impacts of climate change and land use on hydrological processes: A comparison between mountain and lowland agricultural watersheds

Cui

Tian

Gao

et al. 2020

Hydrological Processes

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Mountain and lowland watersheds are two distinct geographical units with considerably different hydrological processes. Understanding their hydrological processes in the context of future climate change and land use scenarios is important for water resource management. This study investigated hydrological processes and their driving factors and eco-hydrological impacts for these two geographical units in the Xitiaoxi watershed, East China, and quantified their differences through hydrological modelling. Hydrological processes in 24 mountain watersheds and 143 lowland watersheds were simulated based on a raster-based Xin'anjiang model and a Nitrogen Dynamic Polder (NDP) model, respectively. These two models were calibrated and validated with an acceptable performance (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficients of 0.81 and 0.50, respectively) for simulating discharge for mountain watersheds and water level for lowland watersheds. Then, an Indicators of Hydrological Alteration (IHA) model was used to help quantify the alterations to the hydrological process and their resulting eco-hydrological impacts. Based on the validated models, scenario analysis was conducted to evaluate the impacts of climate and land use changes on the hydrological processes. The simulation results revealed that (a) climate change would cause a larger increase in annual runoff than that under land use scenario in the mountain watersheds, with variations of 19.9 and 10.5% for the 2050s, respectively. (b) Land use change was more responsible for the streamflow increment than climate change in the lowland watersheds, causing an annual runoff to increase by 27.4 and 16.2% for the 2050s, respectively. (c) Land use can enhance the response of streamflow to the climatic variation. (d) The above-mentioned hydrological variations were notable in flood and dry season in the mountain watersheds, and they were significant in rice season in the lowland watersheds. (e) Their resulting degradation of ecological diversity was more susceptible to future climate change in the two watersheds. This study demonstrated that mountain and lowland watersheds showed

show abstract

“…Due to urban development, intensive human activities have taken place within the Taihu Plain since the late 1980s, including hydraulic construction, land use change, and river reduction [9,35,55]. For the sake of managing water resources and flood, a large number of hydraulic structures (pump, sluices, and dikes) have been constructed along the rivers after devastating floods in 1991 and 1999 [56][57][58]. The increasing trend of hydraulic structure construction since the 1980s can be seen in Figure Figure 4.…”

Section: Impacts Of Human Activities On Water Level Changesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Unraveling the Role of Human Activities and Climate Variability in Water Level Changes in the Taihu Plain Using Artificial Neural Network

Wang

Tabari

et al. 2019

Water

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Water level, as a key indicator for the floodplain area, has been largely affected by the interplay of climate variability and human activities during the past few decades. Due to a nonlinear dependence of water level changes on these factors, a nonlinear model is needed to more realistically estimate their relative contribution. In this study, the attribution analysis of long-term water level changes was performed by incorporating multilayer perceptron (MLP) artificial neural network. We took the Taihu Plain in China as a case study where water level series (1954–2014) were divided into baseline (1954–1987) and evaluation (1988–2014) periods based on abrupt change detection. The results indicate that climate variables are the dominant driver for annual and seasonal water level changes during the evaluation period, with the best performance of the MLP model having precipitation, evaporation, and tide level as inputs. In the evaluation period, the contribution of human activities to water level changes in the 2000s is higher than that in the 1990s, which indicates that human activities, including the rapid urbanization, are playing an important role in recent years. The influence of human activities, especially engineering operations, on water level changes in the 2000s is more evident during the dry season (March-April-May (MAM) and December-January-February (DJF)).

show abstract

Atmospheric and human‐induced impacts on temporal variability of water level extremes in the Taihu Basin, China

Cited by 11 publications

References 56 publications

The changing physical and ecological meanings of North Pacific Ocean climate indices

The changing physical and ecological meanings of North Pacific Ocean climate indices

Quantifying the impacts of climate change and land use on hydrological processes: A comparison between mountain and lowland agricultural watersheds

Unraveling the Role of Human Activities and Climate Variability in Water Level Changes in the Taihu Plain Using Artificial Neural Network

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About