Atmospheric and ionospheric coupling phenomena associated with large earthquakes

Parrot, M.; Tramutoli, Valerio; Liu, Tiger J. Y.; Пулинец, С. А.; Ouzounov, Dimitar; Genzano, Nicola; Lisi, Mariano; Hattori, Katsumi; Namgaladze, A. A.

doi:10.1140/epjst/e2020-000251-3

Cited by 34 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 85 publications

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“…DEMETER data have been analyzed in hundreds of publications. For a summary, we address the reader to the general review Parrot (2018) and to the specific articles (such as for example Parrot, 2012;Zlotnicki et al, 2013;Parrot, and Li, 2015;Liu et al, 2015;Ho et al, 2018;Parrot and Li, 2018;Parrot et al, 2021).…”

Section: Ion and Electron Density Fluctuationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Looking for Earthquake Precursors From Space: A Critical Review

2021

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Starting from late seventies, many observations have been reported about observations in space of signals reconciled with earthquakes and claimed as possible preseismic measurements. The detected parameters range from electromagnetic field components (in a large band of frequencies) to plasmas parameters; from particles detection to thermal anomalies; etc. Up to the DEMETER mission, the analyses have been carried out on datasets gathered by not devoted satellites. Even beyond the results obtained, the DEMETER mission has constituted a milestone for space-based investigations of seismo-associated phenomena drawing a baseline for next missions with respect instruments, observational strategy and measurements uncertainty. Nowadays, the CSES-01 satellite – developed within a sino-italian collaboration with the participation also of Austrian Institutes – represents the most advanced mission for investigating near-Earth electromagnetic environment aimed at extending the observation of earthquake precursors to a long time series. The benefit of the mission is even higher by considering that CSES-01 is the first of a program of several LEO small satellites, the second of which will be launched on 2023 with the same instruments and orbit of CSES-01, but with a shift of half of an orbit in order to monitor each trace twice per orbit. The article gives a short survey of space-based observations of preseismic phenomena from the early studies up to the more recent ones, critically reviewing results, hypotheses and trends in this research field. The supposed physical processes proposed to explain the observations are still unable to explain the large variety of the phenomenology, the statistical significance of the results are highly debated, and more in general a common consensus is still missing. Anyway, the investigation of the seismo-associated phenomena from space is a challenge for near future Earth observation.

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Section: Ion and Electron Density Fluctuationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Looking for Earthquake Precursors From Space: A Critical Review

2021

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“…(9) Parrot et al [57] aim at identifying atmospheric and ionospheric anomalies prior to four large earthquakes in China and Sumatra. Ionospheric density, total electron content, thermal infrared, outgoing longwave radiation, and atmospheric chemical potential are considered as (short-term) precursors.…”

Section: Review and Critique Of Each Contributionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Yan et al [53] compared the DEMETER data to ground station data and observed some synchronicity, which could help in the future to combine multi-source data to potentially obtain more robust signals, as recommended by Qin et al [56] and Zhuang et al [54], in the GEFS spirit. In other ground-based and satellite-based cases [56][57][58]61,[63][64][65][66][67], since no systematic exploration was done and/or no test on independent data was performed, one cannot infer whether non-seismic precursors exist or are just random fluctuations that seem to be significant as a result of some data selection bias and some kind of over-fitting. Moreover, despite the many graphs of data provided, quantitative analyses remain rare.…”

Section: Common Pitfalls Of Pattern Recognition In Earthquake Prediction Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Although some patterns are visually striking, e.g. outgoing longwave radiation anomalies in Parrot et al [57], quantitative tests remain indispensable. Immediate limitations are therefore methodological, but they are correctable.…”

Section: Common Pitfalls Of Pattern Recognition In Earthquake Prediction Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Importantly, the GEFS is initiating a new and much needed phase of cross-disciplinary collaboration [8,50]. The signals addressed in the GEFS issue include: ground-based geoelectric and magnetic anomalies [51][52][53][54][55], radon activity [56], thermal infrared anomalies [57][58][59][60] and longwave radiation [57], combined thermal and gas anomalies [61], (sub)ionospheric signals [53,62,63], total electron content [57], groundwater changes [56,64], precipitation [65], low-frequency "stress waves" [66], solar activity coupling [67], as well as combinations of various signals due to lithosphere-atmosphere-ionosphere coupling [56,57] and comparisons of non-seismic signals to seismic precursors [54,68]. The introductory article of this volume [69] provides a review of the solid-state processes that are proposed to form the basis of the non-seismic precursors and others (in the same volume [70]).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Global Earthquake Forecasting System (GEFS): The challenges ahead

Mignan

Ouillon

Sornette

et al. 2021

Eur. Phys. J. Spec. Top.

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We conclude this special issue on the Global Earthquake Forecasting System (GEFS) by briefly reviewing and analyzing the claims of non-seismic precursors made in the present volume, and by reflecting on the current limitations and future directions to take. We find that most studies presented in this special volume, taken individually, do not provide strong enough evidence of non-seismic precursors to large earthquakes. The majority of the presented results are hampered by the fact that the task at hand is susceptible to potential biases in data selection and possible overfitting. The most encouraging results are obtained for ground-based geoelectric signals, although the probability gain is likely small compared to an earthquake clustering baseline. The only systematic search on satellite data available so far, those of the DEMETER mission, did not find a robust precursory pattern. The conclusion that we can draw is that the overall absence of convincing evidence is likely due to a deficit in systematically applying robust statistical methods and in integrating scientific knowledge of different fields. Most authors are specialists of their field while the study of earthquake precursors requires a system approach combined with the knowledge of many specific characteristics of seismicity. Relating non-seismic precursors to earthquakes remains a challenging multidisciplinary field of investigation. The plausibility of these precursors predicted by models of lithosphere-atmosphere-ionosphere coupling, together with the suggestive evidence collected here, call for further investigations. The primary goal of the GEFS is thus to build a global database of candidate signals, which could potentially improve earthquake predictability (if the weak signals observed are real and false positives sufficiently uncorrelated between different data sources). Such a stacking of disparate and voluminous data will require big data storage and machine learning pipelines, which has become feasible only recently. This special issue compiled an eclectic list of non-seismic precursor candidates, which is in itself a valuable source of information for seismologists, geophysicists and other scientists who may not be familiar with such types of investigations. It also forms the foundation for a coherent, multi-disciplinary collaboration on earthquake prediction.

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