Atmospheric circulation dynamics linked with prominent discharge events in Central Europe

Jacobeit, J.; Philipp, Andreas; Nonnenmacher, Matthias

doi:10.1623/hysj.51.5.946

Cited by 58 publications

(44 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…This finding is in line with other studies that have detected a shift towards increased winter precipitation and the responsible circulation patterns in Central Europe (e.g. Caspary, 1995Caspary, , 2000Jacobeit et al, 2003Jacobeit et al, , 2006Belz et al, 2007;Pauling and Paeth, 2007;Petrow et al, 2007). …”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 93%

A consistent set of trans-basin floods in Germany between 1952–2002

Uhlemann

Thieken

Merz

2010

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

106

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Abstract. Floods that affect many sites simultaneously can pose great challenges in the co-ordination of flood disaster management actions, as well as for the insurance and reinsurance industry, since this type of flooding leads to an accumulation of losses and the risk assessment needs to be extended to a concept representing the spatial risk of flooding. The assessment of the accumulated risk, especially over large domains, requires an analysis of the spatial and temporal coherence of flooding. For Germany the extent of spatial dependence of flooding is largely unknown and no systematic analysis has been performed so far. In this paper, we present a methodology that is capable of capturing the simultaneous occurrence of flooding using multiple series of mean daily discharge. For the first time we present a complete and consistent set of trans-basin floods in Germany for the period between 1952 and 2002. Each flood is characterised by a specific value for the timing, the location and the magnitude of discharges within the entire river network. We propose a measure for quantifying the overall event severity considering both the heterogeneous spatial extent as well as the locally varying magnitudes of a trans-basin flood. In total, we identify 80 trans-basin floods in the entire time period. The set is dominated by events that were recorded in the hydrological winter (64%); 36% occurred during the summer months. 32 events affected more than one third of the entire river network. These most severe events are predominantly winter events. Dividing the study period into two sub-periods, we find an increase in the percentage of winter events from 58% in the first to 70.5% in the second sub-period. Accordingly, we find a significant increase in the number of extreme trans-basin floods in the second subperiod. A natural extension of this study is the quantification of the spatial and temporal dependencies in a multivariateCorrespondence to: S. Uhlemann (uhlemann@gfz-potsdam.de) framework. This framework needs to be supported by a flood typology based on the analysis of the physical processes relevant in the genesis of trans-basin floods.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 93%

A consistent set of trans-basin floods in Germany between 1952–2002

Uhlemann

Thieken

Merz

2010

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

106

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“…Jacobeit et al (2006) found that the main flood-related circulation types in winter include a strong cyclonic centre above northern Europe, a strong low above the eastern Atlantic and southerly west-east cyclone tracks, while flooding in summer is often triggered by the Vb-weather system, southerly west-east cyclone tracks and different cut-off low dynamics. Altogether, the flood regimes identified in Germany fit well into the overall picture of flooding in Central Europe.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The slight increase in summer floods identified within Cluster B is related to intense summer rainfall, which is often linked with Vb-weather conditions (BFG, 1998;Mudelsee et al, 2004;Petrow et al, 2007). Summer floods, such as on the Elbe River in August 2002, were initiated by intense summer rain resulting from such weather conditions (Ulbrich et al, 2003;Jacobeit et al, 2006).…”

Section: Seasonality Within the Identified Clustersmentioning

confidence: 93%

Seasonality of floods in Germany

Beurton

Thieken

2009

Hydrological Sciences Journal

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The seasonal distribution of annual maximum floods at 481 gauging stations throughout Germany was analysed and classified by cluster analysis. As a result, a new map with three regions that represent homogeneous flood regimes is presented: Cluster A in the western and central part of Germany with distinct winter floods; Cluster B with its centre in north and east Germany, in which the percentage of spring and summer floods is higher than in Cluster A; and a small Cluster C in southern Germany, which is dominated by summer floods. The occurrence of maximum observed flood events in three clusters corresponds well with the general seasonality of flooding. Finally, the stability of the flood regimes in different time periods was analysed, and a slight spatial extension of Cluster A towards the southeast was detected. This may hint at changes in westerly circulation patterns, but needs further investigation.Key words flood; Germany; cluster analysis; seasonality Saisonnalité des crues en AllemagneResumé La distribution saisonnière des crues maximales annuelles observées en 481 stations de mesure en Allemagne a été analysée et classifiée avec une analyse de groupe. Il en résulte une nouvelle carte avec trois régions qui présentent des régimes de crues homogènes: le groupe A à l'ouest et au centre de l'Allemagne avec des crues hivernales prononcées; un groupe B centré sur le nord et l'est de l'Allemagne, au sein duquel le pourcentage de crues de printemps et d'été est plus important que dans le groupe A; un petit groupe C dans le sud de l'Allemagne, où dominent les crues d'été. L'occurrence des crues maximales observées dans les trois groupes correspond bien à la saisonnalité générale des crues. Finalement, la stabilité du régime de crue selon les époques a été analysée, et une légère extension spatiale du groupe A vers le sud-est a été détectée. Cela peut être lié à des changements dans les schémas de circulation d'ouest, mais nécessite un approfondissement.

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“…77 McKerchar and Henderson (2003) found changes in several hydrological variables in New Zealand which were consistent with changes in the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. Jacobeit et al (2006) determined large-scale CP for historical flood events with the help of Reanalysis data. They identified CPs that are relevant for the flood hazard in Europe.…”

Section: T Petrow Et Al: Changes In the Flood Hazard In Germanymentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes in the flood hazard in Germany through changing frequency and persistence of circulation patterns

Petrow

Zimmer

Merz

2009

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract.The link between trends in circulation patterns and trends in the flood magnitude is studied for 122 mesoscale catchments in Germany for a period of 52 years . Flood trends, significant at the 10% level, are detected for a large number of catchments. The catchments are pooled into three regions, based on flood seasonality and flood trends. Field-significant increasing trends are found for winter in Regions West and East. For summer, increasing and decreasing flood trends are detected for Regions South and East, respectively. The temporal behaviour of three flood indicators of each region is compared to atmospheric indicators derived from circulation patterns. Significantly increasing frequency and persistence of flood-prone circulation patterns intensify the flood hazard during the winter season throughout Germany. Moreover, a trend towards a reduced diversity of circulation patterns is found causing fewer patterns with longer persistence to dominate the weather over Europe. This indicates changes in the dynamics of atmospheric circulations which directly influence the flood hazard. Longer persistence of circulation patterns which in general do not favour large precipitation amounts may lead to large runoff coefficients due to soil-moistening and hence cause floods.

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Atmospheric circulation dynamics linked with prominent discharge events in Central Europe

Cited by 58 publications

References 16 publications

A consistent set of trans-basin floods in Germany between 1952–2002

A consistent set of trans-basin floods in Germany between 1952–2002

Seasonality of floods in Germany

Changes in the flood hazard in Germany through changing frequency and persistence of circulation patterns

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