Background: Atmospheric particulate matter (PM) has multiple adverse effects on human health; high temperatures are also associated with adverse health outcomes; and the frequency of cardiovascular events (CVEs) varies with season. We investigated a hypothesized increase in PM-related accident and emergency (A&E) presentations for CVE with temperature, season, days of high influenza incidence, and in persons with a cancer diagnosis.
Methods: This was a time-stratified case-crossover study in which patients served as their own controls on days without A&E presentation. Outcomes were associations of A&E presentation for CVE with atmospheric PM ≤10μm (PM10), season, air temperature and influenza incidence. PM10 in municipality of residence (exposure variable) were estimated by modelling data from local monitoring stations. Conditional logistic regression models estimated odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) for presentations in relation to supposed influencers, adjusting for confounders. Separate analyses were performed on persons with a cancer diagnosis. Study participants were all who presented at the A&E of a large hospital near Milan, Italy, for a CVE (ICD-9: 390-459) from 1st January 2014 to 31st December 2015.
Results: There were 1349 A&E presentations for CVE in 2014-2015 and 5390 control days. Risk of A&E presentation was significantly increased (OR 1.34, 95%CI 1.05-1.71) when PM10 was high (as mean PM10 on day of presentation, and 1 and 2 days before [lags 0-2]) on hot days and (for lag 0) in autumn (OR 1.23, 95%CI 1.09-1.37) and winter (OR 1.18, 95%CI 1.01-1.38). Risks were also significantly increased when PM10 was on lag 1, in people with a cancer diagnosis in the spring and summer months (1.88, 95%CI 1.05-3.37), and on days (lags 0-2) of high influenza incidence (OR 2.34, 95%CI 1.01-5.43).
Conclusions: Greater risk of A&E presentation for CVE in periods of high PM10 and high temperature suggests that “safe” thresholds for PM10 should be temperature dependent and that the adverse effects of PM10 will increase as temperatures increase due to climate change.