Atmospheric impacts of sea ice decline in CO2 induced global warming

Cvijanović, Ivana; Caldeira, Ken

doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2489-1

Cited by 35 publications

(29 citation statements)

References 73 publications

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“…The reduction in the equator to pole temperature gradient, forced by these Arctic changes and increased transport of heat and moisture from lower to higher latitudes, may result in a slowdown in the jet stream. This could lead to more meanders and persistent blocking in the jet streamflow which could lead to an increase in extremes in both temperature and precipitation [ Overland and Wang , ; Francis and Vavrus , , ; Cvijanovic and Caldeira , ], though there is not a consensus on whether these types of blocking situations are increasing [ Barnes , ; Screen and Simmonds , ; Barnes and Screen , ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Atmospheric response to anomalous autumn surface forcing in the Arctic Basin

Cassano

2017

JGR Atmospheres

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Data from four reanalyses are analyzed to evaluate the downstream atmospheric response both spatially and temporally to anomalous autumn surface forcing in the Arctic Basin. Running weekly mean skin temperature anomalies were classified using the self‐organizing map algorithm. The resulting classes were used to both composite the initial atmospheric state and determine how the atmosphere evolves from this state. The strongest response was to anomalous forcing—positive skin temperature and total surface energy flux anomalies and reduced sea ice concentration—in the Barents and Kara Seas. Analysis of the evolution of the atmospheric state for 12 weeks after the initial forcing showed a persistence in the anomalies in this area which led to a buildup of heat in the atmosphere. This resulted in positive 1000–500 hPa thickness and high‐pressure circulation anomalies in this area which were associated with cold air advection and temperatures over much of central and northern Asia. Evaluation of days with the opposite forcing (i.e., negative skin temperature anomalies and increased sea ice concentration in the Barents and Kara Seas) showed a mirrored, opposite downstream atmospheric response. Other patterns with positive skin temperature anomalies in the Arctic Basin did not show the same response most likely because the anomalies were not as strong nor did they persist for as many weeks following the initial forcing.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Atmospheric response to anomalous autumn surface forcing in the Arctic Basin

Cassano

2017

JGR Atmospheres

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“…As the ice cover is rapidly diminishing, assessing the possibility that these changes are linked to remote midlatitude responses is a top science priority. One mechanism for connections due to Arctic warming is atmospheric circulation pattern changes, through reduction of the poleward thickness gradient and amplification of upper level waves [ Francis and Vavrus , , ; Overland and Wang , ; Cvijanovic and Caldeira , ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Midlatitude atmospheric responses to Arctic sensible heat flux anomalies in Community Climate Model, Version 4

Mills

Cassano

2016

Geophysical Research Letters

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Possible linkages between Arctic sea ice loss and midlatitude weather are strongly debated in the literature. We analyze a coupled model simulation to assess the possibility of Arctic ice variability forcing a midlatitude response, ensuring consistency between atmosphere, ocean, and ice components. We work with weekly running mean daily sensible heat fluxes with the self‐organizing map technique to identify Arctic sensible heat flux anomaly patterns and the associated atmospheric response, without the need of metrics to define the Arctic forcing or measure the midlatitude response. We find that low‐level warm anomalies during autumn can build planetary wave patterns that propagate downstream into the midlatitudes, creating robust surface cold anomalies in the eastern United States.

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“…The second link connects increased Arctic temperatures to weaker zonal winds through changes in the GPH field. As high-latitude temperatures increase disproportionately, the air becomes less dense, which increases the high-latitude geopotential thickness, reduces the poleward GPH gradient, and thus weakens upper-level westerly winds through the thermal wind relation (Overland and Wang 2010;Vavrus 2012, 2015;Cvijanovic and Caldeira 2015). The last two links suggest that largeamplitude planetary waves in the jet stream tend to progress more slowly, which creates persistent weather conditions that may cause extreme weather events (Screen and Simmonds 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Melting Arctic and Midlatitude Weather Patterns: Are They Connected?*

et al. 2015

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The potential of recent Arctic changes to influence hemispheric weather is a complex and controversial topic with considerable uncertainty, as time series of potential linkages are short (,10 yr) and understanding involves the relative contribution of direct forcing by Arctic changes on a chaotic climatic system. A way forward is through further investigation of atmospheric dynamic mechanisms. During several exceptionally warm Arctic winters since 2007, sea ice loss in the Barents and Kara Seas initiated eastward-propagating wave trains of high and low pressure. Anomalous high pressure east of the Ural Mountains advected Arctic air over central and eastern Asia, resulting in persistent cold spells. Blocking near Greenland related to low-level temperature anomalies led to northerly flow into eastern North America, inducing persistent cold periods. Potential Arctic connections in Europe are less clear. Variability in the North Pacific can reinforce downstream Arctic changes, and Arctic amplification can accentuate the impact of Pacific variability. The authors emphasize multiple linkage mechanisms that are regional, episodic, and based on amplification of existing jet stream wave patterns, which are the result of a combination of internal variability, lower-tropospheric temperature anomalies, and midlatitude teleconnections. The quantitative impact of Arctic change on midlatitude weather may not be resolved within the foreseeable future, yet new studies of the changing Arctic and subarctic low-frequency dynamics, together with additional Arctic observations, can contribute to improved skill in extended-range forecasts, as planned by the WMO Polar Prediction Project (PPP).

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Atmospheric impacts of sea ice decline in CO2 induced global warming

Abstract: sea ice decline is eliminated when taking into account the amplifying effect of sea ice loss on hemispheric warming. However, in other cases, we find the influence of higher order factors, exerting weaker but opposing effects than those expected from the global temperature increase.

Cited by 35 publications

References 73 publications

Atmospheric response to anomalous autumn surface forcing in the Arctic Basin

Atmospheric response to anomalous autumn surface forcing in the Arctic Basin

Midlatitude atmospheric responses to Arctic sensible heat flux anomalies in Community Climate Model, Version 4

The Melting Arctic and Midlatitude Weather Patterns: Are They Connected?*

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