Atmospheric transport patterns and possible consequences for the European North after a nuclear accident

Baklanov, Alexander; Mahura, Alexander; Jaffe, Dan; Thaning, Lennart; Bergman, R.; Andres, R. J.

doi:10.1016/s0265-931x(01)00094-7

Cited by 30 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 13 publications

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“…• Cluster analysis (Mahura, 1998;Mahura et al, 1999;Baklanov et al, 2002a) to identify atmospheric transport pathways from NRSs;…”

Section: General Scheme For Probabilistic Risk Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…• Probability fields analysis (Mahura, 2001;Baklanov et al, 2002a) to construct monthly, seasonal, and annual probability fields for airflow, fast transport, precipitation factor, and other indicators to identify the most impacted geographical regions;…”

Section: General Scheme For Probabilistic Risk Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…• Specific case studies Baklanov et al, , 2002a to estimate consequences for environment and population after hypothetical accidents using experimental models based on the Chernobyl effects for the Nordic countries (Moberg, 1991;Galmarini et al, 1992;Dahlgaard, 1994;Nielsen, 1998);…”

Section: General Scheme For Probabilistic Risk Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…It should be noted that this approach was used for estimation of impacts from various air pollutants as shown by Eliassen and Saltbones (1983); other type of the probabilistic approach, based on the ensemble methods, was realized by Galmarini et al (2001) for nuclear emergency preparedness. For the nuclear risk sources, for example, , Baklanov et al (2002b) used an isentropic trajectory model and cluster analysis technique to assess possible impacts of the hypothetical nuclear accidents in the northern regions. In particular, the long-term consequences for the Nordic countries population were estimated on a basis of the Chernobyl accident exposures in Scandinavia (Moberg, 1991;Dahlgaard, 1994).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Therefore, the on-going project of the Nordic countries "Atmospheric Transport Pathways, Vulnerability, and Possible Accidental Consequences from the Nuclear Risk Sites in the European Arctic" (AR-NARP, 2001-2003 is an extension and integration of previous studies in this field, and hence, the methodology (Baklanov and Mahura, 2001;Mahura and Baklanov, 2002;Baklanov et al, 2002b;Baklanov et al, 2003), which is elaborating in bounds of this project, is a logical continuation of our mentioned work.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Assessment of possible airborne impact from risk sites: methodology for probabilistic atmospheric studies

Baklanov

Mahura

2004

Atmos. Chem. Phys.

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Abstract.The main purpose of this study is to develop a methodology for a multidisciplinary nuclear risk and vulnerability assessment, and to test this methodology through estimation of a nuclear risk to population in the Northern European countries in case of a severe accident at the nuclear risk sites. For assessment of the probabilistic risk and vulnerability, a combination of social-geophysical factors and probabilities are considered.The main focus of this paper is the description of methodology for evaluation of the atmospheric transport of radioactive releases from the risk site regions based on the long-term trajectory modeling. The suggested methodology is given from the probabilistic point of view. The main questions stated are: What are probabilities and times for radionuclide atmospheric transport to different neighbouring countries and territories in case of the hypothetical accidental release at the nuclear risk site? Which geographical territories or countries are at the highest risk from the hypothetical accidental releases?To answer these questions we suggest applying the following research tools for probabilistic atmospheric studies. First tool is atmospheric modelling to calculate multiyear forward trajectories originated over the sites. Second tool is statistical analyses to explore temporal and spatial structure of calculated trajectories and evaluate different probabilistic impact indicators: atmospheric transport pathways, airflow, fast transport, typical transport time, maximum possible impact zone, maximum reaching distance, etc. These indicators are applicable for further GIS-analysis and integration to estimate regional risk and vulnerability in case of accidental releases at the risk sites and for planning the emergency response and preparedness systems.

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“…• Cluster analysis (Mahura, 1998;Mahura et al, 1999;Baklanov et al, 2002a) to identify atmospheric transport pathways from NRSs;…”

Section: General Scheme For Probabilistic Risk Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: General Scheme For Probabilistic Risk Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%