Background
The prevalence of atrial fibrillation in the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected population is growing, but the ability of the CHA2DS2-VASc score to predict thromboembolic (TE) risk is unknown in this population.
Setting
Within the Veterans Affairs HIV Clinical Case Registry, 914 patients had an atrial fibrillation diagnosis between 1997–2011 and no prior TE events.
Methods
We compared TE incidence by CHADS2VASc scores, and stratified by warfarin use. Using Cox proportional hazards regression with adjustment for competing risks, we modeled associations of CHADS2VASc scores and warfarin use with TE risk.
Results
At baseline, the distribution of CHA2DS2-VASc scores was 0 (n=208), 1 (n=285), and 2+ (n= 421); 34 patients developed 38 TE events during a median of 3.8 years follow-up. Event rates by CHA2DS2-VASc scores of 0, 1, and 2+ were 5.4, 9.3, and 8.1 per 1000 person years, respectively; multivariate adjusted hazards ratios (HRs) were 1.70 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.65, 4.45) for CHA2DS2-VASc score 1 (p=0.28) and HR=1.34 (0.51, 3.48) for score 2+ versus 0 (p=0.55). Baseline warfarin use was associated with increased TE risk, though not statistically significant (HR 2.06 [0.86, 4.93], p=0.11) with similar results when modeled as time-updated use and duration of use.
Conclusion
In this national registry of HIV-infected veterans with atrial fibrillation, CHA2DS2-VASc scores were only weakly associated with TE risk. Furthermore, warfarin did not appear to be effective at preventing TE events. These results should raise concerns about the optimal strategy for TE prevention among HIV-infected persons with atrial fibrillation.