Objective
To identify common opioid tapering trajectories among patients commencing taper from long-term opioid therapy for chronic non-cancer pain, and examine patient-level characteristics associated with these different trajectories.
Design
A retrospective cohort study.
Setting. Australian primary care.
Subjects
Patients prescribed opioid analgesics between 2015 and 2020.
Methods
Group-based trajectory modelling and multinomial logistic regression analysis were conducted to determine taper trajectories and examine demographic and clinical factors associated with the different trajectories.
Results
A total of 3,369 patients commenced taper from long-term opioid therapy. Six distinct opioid taper trajectories were identified: low dose, completed taper (12.9%); medium dose, faster taper (12.2%); medium dose, gradual taper (6.5%); low dose, non-completed taper (21.3%); medium dose, non-completed taper (30.4%); high dose, non-completed taper (16.7%). A completed taper trajectory from high opioid dose was not identified. For patients prescribed medium opioid doses, those that completed taper were more likely to have higher geographically-derived socio-economic status (relative risk ratio [RRR], 1.067; 95% confidence intervals [CI], 1.001-1.137) and less likely to have sleep disorders (RRR, 0.661; 95% CI, 0.463-0.945), compared to those that didn’t complete taper. Patients who didn’t complete taper were more likely to be prescribed strong opioids (e.g. morphine, oxycodone), regardless of whether they were tapered from low (RRR, 1.444; 95% CI, 1.138-1.831) or high (RRR, 1.344; 95% CI, 1.027-1.760) doses.
Conclusions
Those prescribed strong opioids and high doses appear less likely to complete taper. Further studies are needed to evaluate the clinical outcomes associated with the identified trajectories.