Abstract. There are various methods available for annual groundwater recharge
estimation with in situ observations (i.e., observations obtained at the
site/location of interest), but a great number of watersheds around the world
still remain ungauged, i.e., without in situ observations of hydrologic
responses. One approach for making estimates at ungauged watersheds is
regionalization, namely, transferring information obtained at gauged
watersheds to ungauged ones. The reliability of regionalization depends on
(1) the underlying system of hydrologic similarity, i.e., the similarity in
how watersheds respond to precipitation input, as well as (2) the approach by
which information is transferred. In this paper, we present a nested tree-based modeling approach for
conditioning estimates of hydrologic responses at ungauged watersheds on ex
situ data (i.e., data obtained at sites/locations other than the
site/location of interest) while accounting for the uncertainties of the
model parameters as well as the model structure. The approach is then
integrated with a hypothesis of two-leveled hierarchical hydrologic
similarity, where the higher level determines the relative importance of
various watershed characteristics under different conditions and the lower
level performs the regionalization and estimation of the hydrologic response
of interest. We apply the nested tree-based modeling approach to investigate the
complicated relationship between mean annual groundwater recharge and
watershed characteristics in a case study, and apply the hypothesis of
hierarchical hydrologic similarity to explain the behavior of a dynamic
hydrologic similarity system. Our findings reveal the decisive roles of soil
available water content and aridity in hydrologic similarity at the regional
and annual scales, as well as certain conditions under which it is risky to
resort to climate variables for determining hydrologic similarity. These
findings contribute to the understanding of the physical principles governing
robust information transfer.