Attribution of global evapotranspiration trends based on the Budyko framework

Li, Shijie; Wang, Guojie; Zhu, Chenxia; Lü, Jian; Ullah, Waheed; Hagan, Daniel Fiifi Tawia; Kattel, Giri; Peng, Jian

doi:10.5194/hess-26-3691-2022

Cited by 25 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 95 publications

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“…In regions where water scarcity is prevalent and drought is a concern, such as Australia, South Africa, West Asia, and southwestern North America, there has been a decline in ET. This trend can be attributed to a negative correlation between air temperature and ET in arid regions 23 , as well as limitations in soil moisture 53 . In the last 12 years, the most signi cant increase in ET variability has been observed during the summer and spring seasons, particularly in South America, Asia, and Australia (Extended Data Fig.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Satellite Imagery reveals an accelerating rate of increase in land evapotranspiration

Jaafar

Sujud

2023

Preprint

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Quantifying Evapotranspiration (ET), a major component of the hydrologic cycle, is critical for monitoring agricultural water use at the field scale and enabling better water management. Despite the importance of a global field-scale ET product, there is limited information available on the inter- and intra-annual variability in recent years. Here, we generate a monthly 100-m resolution ET dataset from 1990 to 2021, using a validated single-source energy balance algorithm and more than four million thermal Landsat satellite imagery scenes. We find that global ET has significantly accelerated over the last two decades at an annual rate of 1.33 mm yr− 1 (0.2%), despite regional disparities. This rate has intensified to 0.47% and 1.97–2.15% in the most recent twelve and seven years of the study, respectively, primarily due to increases in summer ET over North America, African tropics, and Indochina. Our machine learning analysis indicates that air temperature, rainfall, and atmospheric moisture are the primary drivers of these ET trends. This publicly available ET datasets has the potential to advance our understanding of global and local water use dynamics and can inform water policy and management decisions in a warming climate.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Satellite Imagery reveals an accelerating rate of increase in land evapotranspiration

Jaafar

Sujud

2023

Preprint

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“…This exchange of moisture and energy between the land surface and the atmosphere plays a crucial role in connecting the water, energy, and carbon cycles of the earth (Dickinson et al., 1991; Pan et al., 2020; K. Wang & Dickinson, 2012). Accurate estimation of long‐term variations in global terrestrial evapotranspiration is essential for detecting and understanding changes in the global water cycle and associated extreme events such as droughts and floods in changing environments (S. Li et al., 2022; X. Li et al., 2022; Sheffield et al., 2012).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The MOD16 product showed a significant increase at a rate of 5.37 mm yr −1 between 2000 and 2019 (J. Fu, Gong, et al., 2022; J. Fu, Wang, et al., 2022). The upward trend is attributed to various factors such as vegetation changes (F. Zhao et al., 2022), multiple environmental factors including temperature, precipitation, and sunshine duration (T. Feng et al., 2018), land use/cover changes (G. Li et al., 2017), and combinations of these factors (S. Li et al., 2022; X. Li et al., 2022).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Terrestrial Evapotranspiration Over China From 1982 to 2020: Consistency of Multiple Data Sets and Impact of Input Data

Mao,

Bai,

et al. 2024

JGR Atmospheres

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Due to limited direct measurements, regional or global terrestrial evapotranspiration (ET) is generally derived from a combination of meteorological and satellite observations. Although the inhomogeneity of the observed climate data has been widely reported, its impact on the calculated ET has not been adequately quantified. This study aimed to calculate ET using the modified Penman‐Monteith (MPM) model with raw and homogenized meteorological data. Additionally, we compared the calculated ET with those estimates from variable methods (water balance, satellite‐based, and reanalysis) in China and its six major river basins from 1982 to 2020. During the overlapping period of 1997–2018, ET calculated from raw input data decreased slightly at −0.39 mm yr−2 (p = 0.64) in China, whereas homogenized ET showed a significant increasing trend of 0.93 mm yr−2 (p = 0.02), with a better agreement with water balance ET (1.93 mm yr−2, p = 0). Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM) and Modern‐Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA2) could reproduce the increasing trends with 2.08 mm yr−2 (p = 0) and 2.59 mm yr−2 (p = 0). The intercomparison of input variables (solar radiation, relative humidity, wind speed, precipitation, and air temperature) among ET products revealed substantial differences, which can account for the discrepancies in ET estimates. Homogenized ET, GLEAM and MERRA2 exhibited significant increasing trends in China and most river basins from 1982 to 2020. Our findings underscore the importance of utilizing homogenized input data for more accurate ET estimation.

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“…Sulman et al (2016) and Novick et al (2016) pointed out that VPD substantially affects vegetation growth more than soil moisture. VPD affects vegetation growth because increasing VPD leads to an increase evapotranspiration (Li et al, 2011;Li et al, 2022). Consequently, vegetation prevents water loss by closing its stomata, thus limiting vegetation growth.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The combined effects of VPD and soil moisture on historical maize yield and prediction in China

Zhao

Wang²,

Li³

et al. 2023

Front. Environ. Sci.

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Understanding the effects of thermal and water stress on maize yield in the context of climate change is crucial to ensure food security in China. However, very few studies looked into the combined effects of heat and water stress on maize yield in China. Here, we utilized historical reanalysis data from ERA5 and four future shared socioeconomic pathway scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) models to predict the maize yield. We used the linear mixed-effects model to quantify the grid cell sensitivity of vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and root-zone soil moisture to maize yield in China during 2010–2016. The results infer that VPD and root-zone soil moisture are excellent representatives of heat and moisture stress. Maize yield is beneficial only when the atmospheric moisture demand and soil moisture are in relative balance. Based on the historical results’ polynomial function for VPD and soil moisture, we predict the maize yield response to soil moisture and VPD in the four SSPs. The results show that considering soil moisture in the future the projected yield estimates reduce the overestimated yield loss by half compared to considering only atmospheric moisture requirements. Maize yield will decrease under representative SSPs due to an increase in temperature (1.5, 2.0, 2.5, 3.0, 3.5, and 4.0°C). This study suggests that both atmospheric moisture demand and supply need to be considered when analyzing the specific influence of climate change on crop yield to secure and assure global food supplies.

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Attribution of global evapotranspiration trends based on the Budyko framework

Cited by 25 publications

References 95 publications

Satellite Imagery reveals an accelerating rate of increase in land evapotranspiration

Satellite Imagery reveals an accelerating rate of increase in land evapotranspiration

Terrestrial Evapotranspiration Over China From 1982 to 2020: Consistency of Multiple Data Sets and Impact of Input Data

The combined effects of VPD and soil moisture on historical maize yield and prediction in China

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