Attribution of global lake systems change to anthropogenic forcing

Grant, Luke; Vanderkelen, Inne; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Tan, Zeli; Perroud, Marjorie; Stepanenko, Victor; Debolskiy, Andrey; Droppers, Bram; Janssen, Annette B.G.; Woolway, R. Iestyn; Choulga, Margarita; Balsamo, Gianpaolo; Kirillin, Georgiy; Schewe, Jacob; Zhao, Fang; Valle, Iliusi Vega del; Gołub, Małgorzata; Pierson, Don; Marcé, Rafael; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Thiery, Wim

doi:10.1038/s41561-021-00833-x

Cited by 123 publications

(92 citation statements)

References 47 publications

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“…To simulate the occurrence of lake heatwaves, we analyzed daily lake surface temperatures provided by the Inter‐Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2b (ISIMIP2b) Lake Sector. The ISIMIP2b Lake Sector simulations have been used previously to investigate the impact of climate change on lake heat budgets (Vanderkelen et al., 2020), the timing and duration of summer stratification (Woolway, Sharma, et al., 2021), and for attributing the anthropogenic influence on lake ice and surface water temperature variations (Grant et al., 2021). Here, we investigated lake surface temperatures simulated by the SIMSTRAT‐UoG lake model.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Yet, no study to date has investigated the anthropogenic contribution to lake heatwaves. In fact, uncovering the human imprint on lake responses to a changing climate is very much an understudied field (Grant et al., 2021). In this contribution, we aim to fill this knowledge gap by estimating the anthropogenic contribution to the occurrence of the most severe lake heatwaves observed during the satellite data‐taking period (1995–2019).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Severe Lake Heatwaves Attributable to Human‐Induced Global Warming

Woolway

Albergel

Frölicher

et al. 2022

Geophysical Research Letters

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Lake heatwaves, prolonged periods of hot surface water temperatures in lakes (Woolway, Jennings, et al., 2021), can have devastating impacts on aquatic ecosystems. Notable implications of lake heatwaves include severe algal blooms (Jöhnk et al., 2008), mass die-off events (Till et al., 2019), and changes to the community composition of microscopic algae (phytoplankton), which form the bases of aquatic food webs (Baker and Geider, 2021;Olalla et al., 2021;Rasconi et al., 2017). Over time, an increase in the exposure of lake ecosystems to hot temperature extremes may lead to an irreversible loss of species as has already been observed in the oceans due to the increased frequency of marine heatwaves (Cheung et al., 2021Smale et al., 2019Smith et al., 2021;Straub et al., 2019). Moreover, heatwaves can influence some of the many benefits that lakes provide to society, including the provision of safe water for drinking and irrigation, recreational use, and economic benefits, such as fisheries and tourism, with knock-on impacts on local economies. Despite a growing appreciation of their importance, scientific understanding of lake heatwaves is in its infancy (Woolway et al., 2021a(Woolway et al., , 2021b, particularly when compared to their atmospheric (

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Severe Lake Heatwaves Attributable to Human‐Induced Global Warming

Woolway

Albergel

Frölicher

et al. 2022

Geophysical Research Letters

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“…Against the background of intense human activities and global climate change, the hydrology, sedimentation, and landform processes of most lakes globally have changed tremendously (Yu et al, 2018;Mammides, 2020;Grant et al, 2021). Dongting Lake is the second-largest freshwater lake in China and an important lake in the middle reaches of the Changjiang River.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes of Divergence and Confluence Relationship Between Dongting Lake and the Yangtze River After the Operation of the Three Gorges Project and Its Impact on the Waterway Depth

et al. 2022

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Human activities and climate change have profoundly changed the hydrological and geomorphological evolutionary processes and trends of rivers and lakes, which, in turn, has affected the utilization of their waterway depth. This study chose the Dongting Lake–Jingjiang confluence of the Changjiang River (Yangtze Rvier), since the operation of the Three Gorges Project, the split ratio of water and the sediment distribution of the three outlets of Dongting Lake—that is, Songzikou, Taipigkou, and Ouchikou—have continued to decrease. Along with the decreasing flow of Dongting Lake, the relative increase in the runoff of the Jingjiang reach and the increase in riverbed erosion intensity have increased the relative height difference between Jingjiang and Dongting Lake, intensifying the reduction of the split ratio of water and the sediment distribution of the three outlets. The riverbed erosion of the Jingjiang reach has created a promising foundation for an increase in the waterway dimensions. However, the length of the reach not meeting the requirements of 4.5× 200 m (water depth × width) is 18.4 km, of which the length in the river-lake confluence is 12.6 km, accounting for 68.35% of the total length of obstructed navigation. Furthermore, at the reach (Zhicheng–Dabujie reach) affected by the first outlet (Songzikou), a 4.5-m flume has been formed, but its width is less than 200 m. Moreover, the “steep slope and rapid current” phenomenon is clear, and it affects the safety of ships. At the reach (Taipingkou reach) affected by the second outlet, the shrinkage of the bottomland, and the intersecting braided river channels make the low-flow routes unstable, the water depth being less than 4.5 m. At the reach (Tianxingzhou–Ouchikou reach) affected by the third outlet, the shoreline of the reach has collapsed and retreated significantly. Additionally, beach erosion and the downstream movement of cut banks have caused the downstream waterway width at the reach to be reduced to less than 200 m or formed shoals with a water depth of less than 4.5 m. Owing to the jacking effect of the lake’s outflow backwater, the flow rate of the reach (Xiongjiazhou–Chenglingji reach) affected by the confluence of Dongting Lake decreased, creating a shoal with a water depth of less than 4.5 m in the navigation waterway. The results of this study have guiding significance for understanding the changes of channel conditions and the improvement of channel scale in the intersection area of rivers and lakes.

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“…For example, ∼150‐year data records from a few dozen lakes have been successfully used to identify shifts in lake ice phenologies (i.e., trends toward later freeze‐ups, earlier break‐ups, and shorter durations) and their accelerated rates of change in recent decades (B. J. Benson et al., 2012; Korhonen, 2006; Magnuson et al., 2000; Sharma et al., 2021). Unfortunately, this problem is expected to worsen in the future due to the ongoing increase in global temperature and extreme climate events (Filazzola et al., 2020; Grant et al., 2021; Sherwood et al., 2020). A more comprehensive understanding of global lake ice phenology (GLIP) would help to identify patterns and predict consequences toward the lacustrine environment and human society.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…. Unfortunately, this problem is expected to worsen in the future due to the ongoing increase in global temperature and extreme climate events (Filazzola et al, 2020;Grant et al, 2021;Sherwood et al, 2020). A more comprehensive understanding of global lake ice phenology (GLIP) would help to identify patterns and predict consequences toward the lacustrine environment and human society.…”

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confidence: 99%