Attribution of projected changes in summertime US ozone and PM&amp;lt;sub&amp;gt;2.5&amp;lt;/sub&amp;gt; concentrations to global changes

Avise, J.; Chen, Jack; Lamb, Brian; Wiedinmyer, Christine; Guenther, Alex; Salathé, Eric P.; Mass, Clifford F.

doi:10.5194/acp-9-1111-2009

Cited by 87 publications

(97 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…These areas were mostly near urban centers in southern California, southeast Texas and along the east coast. Similar results have been demonstrated in other studies where higher biogenic emissions enhanced the future regional ozone production (Racherla and Adams, 2008;Hogrefe et al, 2004;Avise et al, 2009). For Case 3 and 4, the magnitudes of ozone increases were slightly less, due to reductions in BVOC emissions from the LULC changes.…”

Section: Ground Level Ozonesupporting

confidence: 91%

“…These regions were predicted to have higher energy inputs of þ60 W m À2 and þ100 W m À2 due to decreased cloud cover, while states in the east coast were predicted to have lower energy input of À20 W m À2 and À60 W m À2 . Further analyses of these meteorological changes are discussed in Salathé et al (2008) and in Avise et al (2009). Fig.…”

Section: Meteorologymentioning

confidence: 96%

“…Under the IPCC SRES A2 emissions and climate scenario (IPCC, 2001;Nakić enović and Swart, 2000), we further estimated the impacts on regional ground level ozone and BSOA when combined with projected anthropogenic emission changes in the 2050s. This work follows a decadal simulation study described in Chen et al (2009) and an attribution study described in Avise et al (2009).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Future land use and land cover influences on regional biogenic emissions and air quality in the United States

Chen

Avise

Guenther

et al. 2009

Atmospheric Environment

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a b s t r a c t A regional modeling system was applied with inputs from global climate and chemistry models to quantify the effects of global change on future biogenic emissions and their impacts on ozone and biogenic secondary organic aerosols (BSOA) in the US. Biogenic emissions in the future are influenced by projected changes in global and regional climates and by variations in future land use and land cover (LULC). The modeling system was applied for five summer months for the present-day case (1990)(1991)(1992)(1993)(1994)(1995)(1996)(1997)(1998)(1999), Case 1) and three future cases covering 2045-2054. Individual future cases were: present-day LULC (Case 2); projected-future LULC (Case 3); and future LULC with designated regions of tree planting for carbon sequestration (Case 4). Results showed changing future meteorology with present-day LULC (Case 2) increased average isoprene and monoterpene emission rates by 26% and 20% due to higher temperature and solar insolation. However when LULC was changed together with climate (Case 3), predicted isoprene and monoterpene emissions decreased by 52% and 31%, respectively, due primarily to projected cropland expansion. The reduction was less, at 31% and 14% respectively, when future LULC changes were accompanied by regions of tree planting (Case 4). Despite the large decrease in biogenic emission, future average daily maximum 8-h (DM8H) ozone was found to increase between þ8 ppbv and þ10 ppbv due to high future anthropogenic emissions and global chemistry conditions. Among the future cases, changing LULC resulted in spatially varying future ozone differences of À5 ppbv to þ5 ppbv when compared with present-day case. Future BSOA changed directly with the estimated monoterpene emissions. BSOA increased by 8% with current LULC (Case 2) but decreased by 45%-28% due to future LULC changes. Overall, the results demonstrated that on a regional basis, changes in LULC can offset temperature driven increases in biogenic emissions, and, thus, LULC projection is an important factor to consider in the study of future regional air quality.

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Section: Ground Level Ozonesupporting

confidence: 91%

Section: Meteorologymentioning

confidence: 96%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Future land use and land cover influences on regional biogenic emissions and air quality in the United States

Chen

Avise

Guenther

et al. 2009

Atmospheric Environment

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“…In the US, a combined effort between the Environmental Protection Agency and the academic community resulted in a set of modeling studies that adopted a variety of modeling methods (Hogrefe et al, 2004;Leung and Gustafson, 2005;Liang et al, 2006;Steiner et al, 2006;Tagaris et al, 2007;Liao et al, 2006;Adams, 2006, 2008;Huang et al, , 2008Nolte et al, 2008;Wu et al, 2008a, b;Chen et al, 2009b;Avise et al, 2009;Dawson et al, 2009). These US investigations based their current and future climate realizations on the results of GCMs using the various IPCC emissions scenarios (IPCC, 2007) projected to the 2050s.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The effects of global change upon United States air quality

et al. 2015

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Abstract.To understand more fully the effects of global changes on ambient concentrations of ozone and particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter smaller than 2.5 µm (PM 2.5 ) in the United States (US), we conducted a comprehensive modeling effort to evaluate explicitly the effects of changes in climate, biogenic emissions, land use and global/regional anthropogenic emissions on ozone and PM 2.5 concentrations and composition. Results from the ECHAM5 global climate model driven with the A1B emission scenario from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were downscaled using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to provide regional meteorological fields. We developed air quality simulations using the Community Multiscale Air Quality Model (CMAQ) chemical transport model for two nested domains with 220 and 36 km horizontal grid cell resolution for a semi-hemispheric domain and a continental United States (US) domain, respectively. The semihemispheric domain was used to evaluate the impact of projected global emissions changes on US air quality. WRF meteorological fields were used to calculate current (2000s) and future (2050s) biogenic emissions using the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN). For the semi-hemispheric domain CMAQ simulations, presentday global emissions inventories were used and projected to the 2050s based on the IPCC A1B scenario. Regional anthropogenic emissions were obtained from the US Environmental Protection Agency National Emission Inventory 2002 (EPA NEI2002) and projected to the future using the MARKet ALlocation (MARKAL) energy system model assuming a business as usual scenario that extends current decade emission regulations through 2050. Our results suggest that daily maximum 8 h average ozone (DM8O) concentrations will increase in a range between 2 to 12 parts per billion (ppb) across most of the continental US. The highest increase occurs in the South, Central and Midwest regions of the US due to increases in temperature, enhanced biogenic emissions and changes in land use. The model predicts an average increase of 1-6 ppb in DM8O due to projected increase in global emissions of ozone precursors. The effects of these factors are only partially offset by reductions in DM8O associated with decreasing US anthropogenic emissions. Increases in PM 2.5 levels between 4 and 10 µg m −3 in the Northeast, Southeast, Midwest and South regions are mostly a result of increase in primary anthropogenic particulate matter (PM), enhanced biogenic emissions and land use changes. Changes in boundary conditions shift the composition but do not alter overall simulated PM 2.5 mass concentrations.

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“…High ground-level ozone events are typically found in the summer when the formation of ozone is active through photochemical reactions involving nitrogen oxides (NO x = NO + NO 2 ) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs). However, ozone concentrations are sensitive to weather and climate (3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8), and the high-ozone season could extend beyond summer in the future (9)(10)(11)(12)(13). Previous climate-chemistry model studies have estimated the change of ground-level ozone (ΔO 3 ) in the United States resulting only from meteorological changes.…”

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confidence: 99%

Climate-driven ground-level ozone extreme in the fall over the Southeast United States

Zhang

Wang

2016

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

110

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Ground-level ozone is adverse to human and vegetation health. High ground-level ozone concentrations usually occur over the United States in the summer, often referred to as the ozone season. However, observed monthly mean ozone concentrations in the southeastern United States were higher in October than July in 2010. The October ozone average in 2010 reached that of July in the past three decades . Our analysis shows that this extreme October ozone in 2010 over the Southeast is due in part to a dry and warm weather condition, which enhances photochemical production, air stagnation, and fire emissions. Observational evidence and modeling analysis also indicate that another significant contributor is enhanced emissions of biogenic isoprene, a major ozone precursor, from water-stressed plants under a dry and warm condition. The latter finding is corroborated by recent laboratory and field studies. This climate-induced biogenic control also explains the puzzling fact that the two extremes of high October ozone both occurred in the 2000s when anthropogenic emissions were lower than the 1980s and 1990s, in contrast to the observed decreasing trend of July ozone in the region. The occurrences of a drying and warming fall, projected by climate models, will likely lead to more active photochemistry, enhanced biogenic isoprene and fire emissions, an extension of the ozone season from summer to fall, and an increase of secondary organic aerosols in the Southeast, posing challenges to regional air quality management.ground-level ozone | ozone season | regional climate change | isoprene | air quality G round-level ozone is a pollutant harmful to human and vegetation health (1, 2). High ground-level ozone events are typically found in the summer when the formation of ozone is active through photochemical reactions involving nitrogen oxides (NO x = NO + NO 2 ) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs). However, ozone concentrations are sensitive to weather and climate (3-8), and the high-ozone season could extend beyond summer in the future (9-13). Previous climate-chemistry model studies have estimated the change of ground-level ozone (ΔO 3 ) in the United States resulting only from meteorological changes. Their results show large variation in the sign and magnitude of ΔO 3 in the fall, especially over forested regions such as the southeastern United States (SE) (10, 13). The lack of consensus reflects the uncertainties in modeling regional climate change and the consequent response of ground-level ozone.In this study, we focus on analyzing the historical ozone records. Fig. 1A Fig. S1). The number increases to 324 exceedances at 112 stations if the new US ambient ozone standard threshold value, 70 ppbv, is used (SI Appendix, Fig. S1). The regional average reached 65 ppbv during October 8-10, 2010 ( Fig. 2A). ppbv, considerably lower than that in the summer ozone season (∼50 ppbv in July). However, in the two extreme years, 2000 and 2010, regional monthly mean [O 3 ] MDA8 are 52 and 49 ppbv, respectively, two interannual standa...

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Attribution of projected changes in summertime US ozone and PM<sub>2.5</sub> concentrations to global changes

Cited by 87 publications

References 42 publications

Future land use and land cover influences on regional biogenic emissions and air quality in the United States

Future land use and land cover influences on regional biogenic emissions and air quality in the United States

The effects of global change upon United States air quality

Climate-driven ground-level ozone extreme in the fall over the Southeast United States

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