Attribution of water resources evolution in the highly water‐stressed Hai River Basin of China

Jia, Yangwen; Ding, Xiangyi; Wang, Hao; Zhou, Zuhao; Qiu, Yaqin; Niu, Cunwen

doi:10.1029/2010wr009275

Cited by 39 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…Bao et al (2012) proposed that climate variability was the major driving factor in the Taolinkou catchment, and human activities were the main driving factor in the Zhangjiafen and the Guantai catchment of the Haihe River Basin. Jia et al (2012) indicated that local human activity is the main factor for the changes in the water resources during the period of 1961-2000, and it accounted for about 60 % of the changes. In addition, Lei et al (2014) suggested that climate induced runoff in Haihe River Basin exhibits a decreasing trend since 1960, and changes in precipitation, solar radiation, air temperature, and wind speed accounts for 56, 14, 13, and 5 % of the overall decrease in annual runoff, respectively.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Quantifying impacts of climate variability and human activities on the hydrological system of the Haihe River Basin, China

Wei

et al. 2014

Environ Earth Sci

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In the last 50 years, the hydrological system of the Haihe River Basin in northern China has undergone great changes, such as declines in runoff and discharge, rivers drying up, and groundwater depletion. Both climate variability and human activities have been regarded as causes for these changes, but which is the major reason was not clear in the past. This paper aims to quantify the impact of climate variability, particularly changes of precipitation, and human activities (water storage projects, agricultural development, soil and water conservation projects, and agricultural water saving) on the hydrological system of the basin. A basin-level water consumption balance model was used to simulate the changes of the hydrological system during the period of 1958-2008. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and Pettitt's test methods were adopted to identify trends and change points of the hydrological factors. And the contribution of climatic variability and human activities was calculated based on the multi-year average of all the climatic and hydrological parameters of different river basin management stages and their relative changes between adjacent periods. The results show that from 1958 to 1965 the basin hydrological system was in the natural state of equilibrium. During 1966-1978 human activities were the main factors with the contribution of 96.1 and 76.6 % for the upstream and downstream area. During the period of 1979-1988, the change of precipitation was the main factor to cause the upstream and downstream hydrological system changes with contributions of 73.8 and 64.1 %. In the period of 1989-2000 and 2001-2008, the climate variability still dominated the impact of the hydrological system changes in the upstream and downstream areas. Based on these findings, some measures were recommended to improve the balance of the hydrological system in this basin including recharging the downstream area with water that is currently stored in the upstream, implementing agricultural water-saving practices in the basin, and using treated sewage from the cities for river environmental flow recovery and wetland restoration.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Quantifying impacts of climate variability and human activities on the hydrological system of the Haihe River Basin, China

Wei

et al. 2014

Environ Earth Sci

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“…Since the groundwater is overexploited, local land water resources are declining rapidly, and an extreme water crisis has emerged in the Basin (Xu et al, 2004;Yang and Tian, 2009;Liang et al, 2011;Jia et al, 2012). Rivers at least 4000 km long, which account for about 40% of the total length of all rivers in the Basin, have become seasonal rivers.…”

Section: Study Domainmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of anthropogenic groundwater exploitation on land surface processes: A case study of the Haihe River Basin, northern China

Zou

Xie²,

Zhan

et al. 2015

Journal of Hydrology

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s u m m a r yIn this study, we incorporated a groundwater exploitation scheme into the land surface model CLM3.5 to investigate the effects of the anthropogenic exploitation of groundwater on land surface processes in a river basin. Simulations of the Haihe River Basin in northern China were conducted for the years 1965-2000 using the model. A control simulation without exploitation and three exploitation simulations with different water demands derived from socioeconomic data related to the Basin were conducted. The results showed that groundwater exploitation for human activities resulted in increased wetting and cooling effects at the land surface and reduced groundwater storage. A lowering of the groundwater table, increased upper soil moisture, reduced 2 m air temperature, and enhanced latent heat flux were detected by the end of the simulated period, and the changes at the land surface were related linearly to the water demands. To determine the possible responses of the land surface processes in extreme cases (i.e., in which the exploitation process either continued or ceased), additional hypothetical simulations for the coming 200 years with constant climate forcing were conducted, regardless of changes in climate. The simulations revealed that the local groundwater storage on the plains could not contend with high-intensity exploitation for long if the exploitation process continues at the current rate. Changes attributable to groundwater exploitation reached extreme values and then weakened within decades with the depletion of groundwater resources and the exploitation process will therefore cease. However, if exploitation is stopped completely to allow groundwater to recover, drying and warming effects, such as increased temperature, reduced soil moisture, and reduced total runoff, would occur in the Basin within the early decades of the simulation period. The effects of exploitation will then gradually disappear, and the variables will approach the natural state and stabilize at different rates. Simulations were also conducted for cases in which exploitation either continues or ceases using future climate scenario outputs from a general circulation model. The resulting trends were almost the same as those of the simulations with constant climate forcing, despite differences in the climate data input. Therefore, a balance between slow groundwater restoration and rapid human development of the land must be achieved to maintain a sustainable water resource.

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“…For example, Jia et al (2012) employed a fingerprintbased method to attribute observed changes in water resource amounts in the Hai catchment, China, to local human activity, rather than climate variability. Vorogushyn and Merz (2013) showed that an important contribution to detected increasing trends in observed flood time series along the Rhine is attributable to extensive river training.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Attribution of detected changes in streamflow using multiple working hypotheses

Harrigan

Murphy

Hall

et al. 2014

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. This paper revisits a widely cited study of the Boyne catchment in east Ireland that attributed greater streamflow from the mid-1970s to increased precipitation linked to a shift in the North Atlantic Oscillation. Using the method of multiple working hypotheses we explore a wider set of potential drivers of hydrological change. Rainfallrunoff models are used to reconstruct streamflow to isolate the effect of climate, taking account of both model structure and parameter uncertainty. The Mann-Kendall test for monotonic trend and Pettitt change point test are applied to explore signatures of change. Contrary to earlier work, arterial drainage and simultaneous onset of field drainage in the 1970s and early 1980s are now invoked as the predominant drivers of change in annual mean and high flows within the Boyne. However, a change in precipitation regime is also present in March, thereby amplifying the effect of drainage. This new explanation posits that multiple drivers acting simultaneously were responsible for the observed change, with the relative contribution of each driver dependant on the timescale investigated. This work demonstrates that valuable insights can be gained from a systematic application of the method of multiple working hypotheses in an effort to move towards more rigorous attribution, which is an important part of managing emerging impacts on hydrological systems.

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Attribution of water resources evolution in the highly water‐stressed Hai River Basin of China

Cited by 39 publications

References 21 publications

Quantifying impacts of climate variability and human activities on the hydrological system of the Haihe River Basin, China

Quantifying impacts of climate variability and human activities on the hydrological system of the Haihe River Basin, China

Effects of anthropogenic groundwater exploitation on land surface processes: A case study of the Haihe River Basin, northern China

Attribution of detected changes in streamflow using multiple working hypotheses

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