Introduction: The approval of combination treatments for metastatic renal cell carcinoma (mRCC) represents a major change in the clinical management of this malignancy. Updated treatment guidelines differentiate first-line mRCC treatment by patient risk group as defined by prognostic models and the number of risk factors. Areas covered: Current prognostic models, with a focus on the International Metastatic RCC Database Consortium and the Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center models, the heterogeneity of the intermediate risk group, and first-and second-line mRCC treatment outcomes according to patient risk group are discussed. Consideration is given to the future direction of treatment selection strategies including refinement of prognostic factors, genetic biomarkers and gene signatures. Expert opinion: Current prognostic models require updating, but initial data suggests they are effective in stratifying patients treated with immune checkpoint inhibitors or combination therapy. Treatment selection for patients with 1-2 risk factors may require further consideration due to the heterogeneous nature of the intermediate risk group. Future prognostic models may benefit from inclusion of gene signatures and stratification by molecular subtype. Prognostic risk factors are not the only consideration in treatment selection; tumor burden, location of metastases, and comorbidities, among other factors, should also be considered.