August median streamflow on ungaged streams in Eastern Coastal Maine

Lombard, Pamela J.

doi:10.3133/sir20045157

Cited by 7 publications

(6 citation statements)

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“…The regional studies of small basins on ungaged streams in eastern Aroostook County, Maine, (Lombard and others, 2003) and August median streamflows on ungaged streams in eastern coastal Maine (Lombard, 2004b) have demonstrated that estimates of August median streamflow developed from statewide equations designed for basins with large drainage areas (greater than 10 mi 2 ) and small percentages of sand and gravel aquifers (less than 30 percent) are not applicable to all small basins (less than 10 mi 2 ) in Maine, especially those basins underlain by greater than 30 percent sand and gravel aquifers. The percentage of the basin underlain by sand and gravel aquifers and the drainage area were used in the equation to estimate August median streamflows for small basins in eastern coastal Maine (Lombard, 2004b). Mean basin elevation and drainage area were used in the equation to estimate August median streamflows for small basins in eastern Aroostook County, Maine (Lombard and others, 2003).…”

Section: June and August Median Streamflows Estimated For Ungaged Strmentioning

confidence: 99%

June and August median streamflows estimated for ungaged streams in southern Maine

Lombard¹

2010

Scientific Investigations Report

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Methods for estimating June and August median streamflows were developed for ungaged, unregulated streams in southern Maine. The methods were developed using streams with drainage areas ranging in size from 0.4 to 74 square miles, with percentage of basin underlain by a sand and gravel aquifer ranging from 0 to 84 percent, and with distance from the centroid of the basin to a Gulf of Maine line paralleling the coast ranging from 14 to 94 miles. Equations were developed with data from 4 long-term continuous-record streamgage stations and 27 partial-record streamgage stations. Estimates of median streamflows at the continuous-record and partial-record stations are presented. A mathematical technique for estimating standard low-flow statistics, such as June and August median streamflows, at partial-record streamgage stations was applied by relating base-flow measurements at these stations to concurrent daily streamflows at nearby long-term (at least 10 years of record) continuous-record streamgage stations (index stations). Weighted least-squares regression analysis (WLS) was used to relate estimates of June and August median streamflows at streamgage stations to basin characteristics at these same stations to develop equations that can be used to estimate June and August median streamflows on ungaged streams. WLS accounts for different periods of record at the gaging stations. Three basin characteristics-drainage area, percentage of basin underlain by a sand and gravel aquifer, and distance from the centroid of the basin to a Gulf of Maine line paralleling the coast-are used in the final regression equation to estimate June and August median streamflows for ungaged streams. The three-variable equation to estimate June median streamflow has an average standard error of prediction from-35 to 54 percent. The three-variable equation to estimate August median streamflow has an average standard error of prediction from-45 to 83 percent. Simpler one-variable equations that use only drainage area to estimate June and August median streamflows were developed for use when less accuracy is acceptable. These equations have average standard errors of prediction from-46 to 87 percent and from-57 to 133 percent, respectively.

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Section: June and August Median Streamflows Estimated For Ungaged Strmentioning

confidence: 99%

June and August median streamflows estimated for ungaged streams in southern Maine

Lombard¹

2010

Scientific Investigations Report

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“…Dudley (2004) derived statewide equations for estimating monthly and annual mean and median streamflows as well as the 7-day low flow with a 10 percent annual exceedance probability, superseding similar equations derived by Parker (1977). A few regional studies within Maine have produced regression equations for specific months: June and August median streamflows in southern Maine (Lombard, 2010), August median streamflows in eastern coastal Maine (Lombard, 2004), and August median streamflows in eastern Aroostook County (Lombard and others, 2003). In 2012, the USGS began a cooperative investigation with the Maine Department of Transportation (MDOT) to derive statewide regression equations that can be used to estimate monthly and annual mean and 1, 5,10,25,50,75,90,95, and 99 percentile streamflows for ungaged rivers in Maine.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Regression Equations for Monthly and Annual Mean and Selected Percentile Streamflows for Ungaged Rivers in Maine

Dudley¹

2015

Scientific Investigations Report

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In an effort to delineate hydrologic conditions in Maine, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Maine Department of Transportation, used streamflow data to develop dependent variables for 130 regression equations for estimating monthly and annual mean and 1, 5, 10, 25, 50, 75, 90, 95, and 99 percentile streamflows for ungaged, unregulated rivers in Maine. Daily streamflow data from 24 rural unregulated basins with drainage areas between 14.9 and 1,419 square miles in Maine and northern New Hampshire were used in the derivation of the equations. Streamflow data collected from October 1, 1982, through September 30, 2012, were used to derive the dependent variables for this study to represent current [2015] hydrologic conditions in Maine and northern New Hampshire. Weighted least squares regression techniques were used to derive the final coefficients and measures of uncertainty for the regression equations. Eight basin characteristics serve as the explanatory variables: drainage area, distance from the coast, mean and maximum basin elevation, mean basin slope, mean basin percentage of hydrologic soil group A, fraction of sand and gravel aquifers, and percentage of open water. The largest average errors of prediction are associated with regression equations for the lowest streamflows derived for months during which the lowest streamflows of the year occur (such as the 5 and 1 monthly percentiles for August and September). The regression equations have been derived on the basis of streamflow and basin characteristics data for unregulated, rural drainage basins without substantial streamflow or drainage modifications (for example, diversions and (or) regulation by dams or reservoirs, tile drainage, irrigation, channelization, and impervious paved surfaces), therefore using the equations for regulated or urbanized basins with substantial streamflow or drainage modifications will yield results of unknown error. Input basin characteristics derived using techniques or datasets other than those documented in this report or using values outside the ranges used to develop these regression equations also will yield results of unknown error.

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“…Determination of low‐flow statistics through regional regression analysis typically has produced estimates with wide confidence intervals (Smakhtin ) and was often based on assumptions of stationarity (Ries and Friesz ; Flynn ; Lombard et al. ; Dudley , ; Lombard , ; Bent et al. ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Statistical Models to Predict and Assess Spatial and Temporal Low‐Flow Variability in New England Rivers and Streams

Detenbeck

2018

J American Water Resour Assoc

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In the northern hemisphere, summer low flows are a key attribute defining both quantity and quality of aquatic habitat. I developed one set of models for New England streams/rivers predicting July/August median flows averaged across 1985–2015 as a function of weather, slope, % imperviousness, watershed storage, glacial geology, and soils. These models performed better than most United States Geological Survey models for summer flows developed at a statewide scale. I developed a second set of models predicting interannual differences in summer flows as a function of differences in air temperature, precipitation, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, and lagged NAO. Use of difference equations eliminated the need for transformations and accounted for serial autocorrelations at lag 1. The models were used in sequence to estimate time series for monthly low flows and for two derived flow metrics (tenth percentile [Q10] and minimum 3‐in‐5 year average flows). The first metric is commonly used in assessing risk to low‐flow conditions over time, while the second has been correlated with increased probability of localized extinctions for brook trout. The flow metrics showed increasing trends across most of New England for 1985–2015. However, application of summer flow models with average and extreme climate projections to the Taunton River, Massachusetts, a sensitive watershed undergoing rapid development, projected that low‐flow metrics will decrease over the next 50 years.

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August median streamflow on ungaged streams in Eastern Coastal Maine

Cited by 7 publications

References 4 publications

June and August median streamflows estimated for ungaged streams in southern Maine

June and August median streamflows estimated for ungaged streams in southern Maine

Regression Equations for Monthly and Annual Mean and Selected Percentile Streamflows for Ungaged Rivers in Maine

Statistical Models to Predict and Assess Spatial and Temporal Low‐Flow Variability in New England Rivers and Streams

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