Automated Offender Risk Assessment

Wormith, J. Stephen

doi:10.1111/1745-9133.12277

Cited by 16 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 61 publications

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“…For instance, for high-risk persons, measures such as allocation in a cell with other prisoners, walks with large groups and contact with symptomatic visitors should be avoided. Furthermore, using a screening tool can save time and resources to prison staff, reducing ambiguity in decision making at the same time (higher reliability) [32]. An algorithm to calculate scores and associated risk category is presented in table S2 (appendix 1).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

COVID-19 Inmate Risk Appraisal (CIRA): development and validation of a screening tool to assess COVID-19 vulnerability in prisons

Gonçalves¹,

Baggio²,

Weber³

et al. 2021

Swiss Med Wkly

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OBJECTIVES To develop and validate a screening tool designed to identify detained people at increased risk for COVID-19 mortality, the COVID-19 Inmate Risk Appraisal (CIRA). DESIGN Cross-sectional study with a representative sample (development) and a case-control sample (validation). SETTING The two largest Swiss prisons. PARTICIPANTS (1) Development sample: all male persons detained in Pöschwies, Zurich (n = 365); (2) Validation sample: case-control sample of male persons detained in Champ-Dollon, Geneva (n = 192, matching 1:3 for participants at risk for severe course of COVID-19 and participants without risk factors). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES The CIRA combined seven risk factors identified by the World Health Organization and the Swiss Federal Office of Public Health as predictive of severe COVID-19 to derive an absolute risk increase in mortality rate: Age ≥60 years, cardiovascular disease, diabetes, hypertension, chronic respiratory disease, immunodeficiency and cancer. RESULTS Based on the development sample, we proposed a three-level classification: average (<3.7), elevated (3.7-5.7) and high (>5.7) risk. In the validation sample, the CIRA identified all individuals identified as vulnerable by national recommendations (having at least one risk factor). The category “elevated risk” maximised sensitivity (1) and specificity (0.97). The CIRA had even higher capacity in discriminating individuals vulnerable according to clinical evaluation (a four-level risk categorisation based on a consensus of medical staff). The category “elevated risk” maximised sensitivity and specificity (both 1). When considering the individuals classified as extremely high risk by medical staff, the category “high risk” had a high discriminatory capacity (sensitivity =0.89, specificity =0.97). CONCLUSIONS The CIRA scores have a high discriminative ability and will be important in custodial settings to support decisions and prioritise actions using a standardised valid assessment method. However, as knowledge on risk factors for COVID-19 mortality is still limited, the CIRA may be considered preliminary. Underlying data will be updated regularly on the website (http://www.prison-research.com), where the CIRA algorithm is freely available.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

COVID-19 Inmate Risk Appraisal (CIRA): development and validation of a screening tool to assess COVID-19 vulnerability in prisons

Gonçalves¹,

Baggio²,

Weber³

et al. 2021

Swiss Med Wkly

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show abstract

“…Using a standardized screening tool may save time and resources to prison staff, and reduce ambiguity in decision-making (higher reliability). 22 This allows prison managers prioritizing cases and making intervention plans. An Excel algorithm to calculate scores and associated risk category is presented in Appendix 2.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

COVID-19 Inmate Risk Appraisal (CIRA): Development and validation of a screening tool to assess COVID-19 vulnerability in prisons

Gonçalves

Baggio

Weber

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Abstract Objectives. To develop and validate a screening tool designed to identify detained people at increased risk for COVID-19 mortality, the COVID-19 Inmate Risk Appraisal (CIRA). Design. Cross-sectional study with a representative sample (development) and a case-control sample (validation).Setting. The two largest Swiss prisons.Participants. (1) Development sample: all male persons detained in Pöschwies, Zurich (n=365); (2) Validation sample: case-control sample of male persons detained in Champ-Dollon, Geneva (n=192, matching 1:3 for participants at risk for severe course of COVID-19 and participants without risk factors).Main outcome measures. The CIRA combined seven risk factors identified by the World Health Organization and the Swiss Federal Office of Public Health as prognosis of severe COVID-19 to derive an absolute risk increase in mortality rate: Age ≥60, cardiovascular disease, diabetes, hypertension, chronic respiratory disease, immunodeficiency, and cancer. Results. Based on the development sample, we proposed a three-level classification: average (<3.7), elevated (3.7-5.7), and high (>5.7) risk. In the validation sample, the CIRA identified all individuals considered vulnerable by national recommendations (having at least one risk factor). The category “elevated risk” maximized sensitivity (1) and specificity (.97). The CIRA had even higher capacity in discriminating vulnerable individuals according to clinical evaluation (a four-level risk categorization based on a consensus of medical staff). The category “elevated risk” maximized sensitivity and specificity (both 1). When considering the individuals classified as extremely high risk by medical staff, the category “high risk” had a high discriminatory capacity (sensitivity=.89, specificity=.97). Conclusions. The CIRA scores have a high discriminative ability and will be important in custodial settings to support decisions and prioritize actions using a standardized valid assessment method. However, as knowledge on risk factors for COVID-19 mortality is still limited, the CIRA should be considered preliminary. Underlying data will be updated regularly on the website www.prison-research.com, where the CIRA algorithm is freely available.

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“…Risk instruments can do more than identify who is at risk of recidivating: They can help direct resources according to individuals’ needs. Participants and the literature suggest practitioners using predictive technologies should focus more on the criminogenic needs and protective factors moderating risk (Barnes-Lee, 2020; Nelson & Vincent, 2018; Wormith, 2017). If practitioners only attend to risk, they may miss critical aspects of individuals’ characteristics and experiences contributing to their recidivism (Barnes-Lee, 2020).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Imperfect Tools: A Research Note on Developing, Applying, and Increasing Understanding of Criminal Justice Risk Assessments

Applegarth

Lewis

Rief

2023

Criminal Justice Policy Review

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This article shares considerations for designing, implementing, and understanding risk assessments used to reduce recidivism of people under community supervision. These insights are gleaned from 27 data scientists who participated in focus groups during the National Institute of Justice’s Recidivism Challenge Winners Symposium. Analyses revealed three primary themes: design considerations, implementation, and increasing awareness and understanding of risk assessments. Critical aspects of the design phase include validating the tool, incorporating field data that account for real-time changes, and adopting strategies to address false positives/negatives and the model’s complexity. Upon the tool’s development, practitioners are recommended to devise an implementation plan, balance attention to risk with client-focused needs, and exercise modest discretion while considering algorithmic results. Recognizing the value predictive instruments bring to decision-making and identifying their limitations is needed to increase understanding for all stakeholders. Collaboration and dialogue between tool developers and practitioners are crucial at every stage.

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Automated Offender Risk Assessment

Cited by 16 publications

References 61 publications

COVID-19 Inmate Risk Appraisal (CIRA): development and validation of a screening tool to assess COVID-19 vulnerability in prisons

COVID-19 Inmate Risk Appraisal (CIRA): development and validation of a screening tool to assess COVID-19 vulnerability in prisons

COVID-19 Inmate Risk Appraisal (CIRA): Development and validation of a screening tool to assess COVID-19 vulnerability in prisons

Imperfect Tools: A Research Note on Developing, Applying, and Increasing Understanding of Criminal Justice Risk Assessments

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