“…However, specific research on mathematical modeling and analysis of probe-drogue docking success probability for PDARS has not yet been reported. To the best of our knowledge, only some flight tests show that the docking success probability of the manned aircraft is 30%∼40%, and the NASA UAV 2 International Journal of Aerospace Engineering aerial refueling docking success probability is about 60% [5,17,21]. As mentioned above, the previous research mainly focused on drogue detection and recognition, drogue 3D locating, docking control, bow wave effect analysis, and hose whipping control, while it did not involve the probe-drogue docking success probability estimation, which will be of great guiding significance to the decision making of PDARS in the engineering application of probe-drogue aerial refueling [5].…”