At present, the treatment process for sudden water pollution(WP) problems generally includes water quality exceeding warning, artificial investigation of warning reasons, artificial search for pollution source(PS), risk assessment by experts, and formulation and implementation of emergency plans. However, sudden WP events usually cause huge harm in a short time, and emergency measures often fail to respond in a timely manner. Therefore, in order to give early warning and quickly deal with sudden pollution, this paper constructs a recurrent WP early warning model(EWM). By comparing the prediction and simulation of total phosphorus concentration in water body by the latent factor model and Mike model, it is found that the prediction value based on the LFM is very consistent with the simulation value, It can be used to predict the distribution characteristics of water pollutants from PS and help people deal with WP incidents quickly.