Autumn larval cold tolerance does not predict the northern range limit of a widespread butterfly species

Tremblay, Philippe; MacMillan, Heath A.; Kharouba, Heather M.

doi:10.1002/ece3.7663

Cited by 8 publications

(9 citation statements)

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“…Correlative species distribution models (SDM) are a commonly used tool for doing this. SDMs have been used to identify the most important abiotic and/or biotic factors that determine the geographic distributions of species (Lewis et al 2017, McCune et al 2020, Tremblay et al 2021, Nowell et al 2022).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Testing the assumption of environmental equilibrium in an invasive plant species over a 130 year history

2022

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Invasive plants are an increasing threat to global biodiversity. Effective management depends on accurate predictions of their spread. However, modelling the geographic distribution of invasive species, particularly with correlative species distribution models (SDMs), is challenging. SDMs assume that species are in equilibrium with their environment (i.e. they occur in all suitable environments); this assumption is likely to be violated for a species that is actively invading new environments. This assumption is rarely assessed, and when violated can have consequences for model reliability. Using the invasive vine Vincetoxicum rossicum, we tested the hypotheses that: 1) invasive species' distribution in environmental and geographic space increase to a plateau over time; 2) this plateau is a useful proxy for equilibrium distribution, a key assumption underlying SDMs. We compare V. rossicum's expansion in environmental and geographic space between historical and current time periods and infer equilibrium when its distribution has remained stable for an extended period. We also compare the performance of SDMs from historical time periods in predicting the current geographic distribution of V. rossicum. We found that V. rossicum has reached equilibrium in environmental space, but is still expanding its geographic distribution. SDM performance was poor in the first 30 years following introduction, but improved as V. rossicum approached environmental equilibrium. Our findings demonstrate the power of including temporal dynamics and the need to consider environmental and geographic equilibrium separately when modelling the distribution of invasive species. In light of our findings, we address shortcomings of the current approach to defining an equilibrium distribution and present a new perspective for reconciling the potentially confounding influence of dispersal limitation when assessing equilibrium distribution.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Testing the assumption of environmental equilibrium in an invasive plant species over a 130 year history

2022

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“…We estimated GDD for the correlative model based on the same BDT for all species: 5 C, a commonly used BDT for butterflies and other insects (e.g., Buckley et al, 2011;Eskildsen et al, 2013;Hill et al, 1999Hill et al, , 2002Luoto et al, 2006). We evaluated the sensitivity of the results to the choice of this threshold using another commonly used BDT: 10 C (e.g., Cayton et al, 2015;Nufio et al, 2010;Tremblay et al, 2021; see Appendix S1). As the results were similar, the correlative model in the main text was based on a BDT of 5 C (hereafter the "correlative model").…”

Section: Overall Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…It is often included as one of the climatic factors in butterfly species distribution models (SDMs) (e.g., Eskildsen et al, 2013;Hill et al, 1999Hill et al, , 2002 and is a focus of phenological models for pest species (e.g., Crimmins et al, 2020). Some studies have identified GDD as an important climatic factor for predicting Lepidopteran ranges at broad scales (Eskildsen et al, 2013;Luoto et al, 2006;Tremblay et al, 2021; but see Bryant et al, 1997).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Hybrid SDMs still model the realized niche but they explicitly incorporate prospective range‐limiting processes by incorporating process‐derived explanatory variables (Elith et al, 2010; Sillero, 2011) and thus have the potential to improve the accuracy of SDM predictions. For example, hybrid SDMs include species‐specific traits such as dispersal (Brotons et al, 2012) and physiological thresholds (e.g., critical thermal minimum; Tremblay et al, 2021). There has been mixed evidence about if, and when, hybrid models outperform correlative models (Tourinho & Vale, 2021).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Growing degree‐days do not explain moth species' distributions at broad scales

Keefe,

Kharouba

2024

Ecosphere

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Growing degree‐days (GDD), an estimate of an organism's growing season length, has been shown to be an important predictor of Lepidopteran species' distributions and could be influencing Lepidopteran range shifts to climate change. Yet, one understudied simplification in this literature is that the same thermal threshold is used in the calculations of GDD for all species instead of a species‐specific threshold. By characterizing the phenological process influenced by climate, a species‐specific estimate of GDD should improve the accuracy of species distribution models (SDMs). To test this hypothesis, we used published, experimentally estimated thermal thresholds and modeled the current geographic distribution of 30 moth species native to North America. We found that the predictive performance of models based on a species‐specific estimate of GDD was indistinguishable from models based on a standard estimate of GDD. This is likely because GDD was not an important predictor of these species' distributions. Our findings suggest that experimentally estimated thermal thresholds may not always scale up to be predictive at broad scales and that more work is needed to leverage the data from lab experiments into SDMs to accurately predict species' range shifts in response to climate change.

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“…Consequently, exposure to stressful thermal conditions constrain insect performance, and insects' ability to tolerate thermal extremes is tightly associated with their fundamental niche range limits (2)(3)(4), a pattern that holds true for ectotherms in general (5,6). This also applies to butterflies, where thermal tolerance traits have been used in attempts to model range limits and changes therein (7)(8)(9)(10). Thus, gaining an integrative understanding of the physiological mechanisms limiting thermal tolerance and distribution of butterflies, is critical if we want to improve conservation efforts for some of the most charismatic, yet vulnerable species (11)(12)(13).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tropical butterflies lose central nervous system function in the cold from a spreading depolarization event

Andersen

Willot

MacMillan

2023

Preprint

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Insects are ectotherms and their physiological functions are therefore directly influenced by the environmental temperature. By extension, their ability to tolerate thermal extremes is directly linked to their thermal niche and distribution. Understanding the physiological mechanisms that limit insect thermal tolerance is therefore crucial for our ability to predict biogeography and range shifts. Recent studies on fruit flies and locusts suggest that the loss of coordinated movements at the critical thermal minimum is due to a loss of central nervous system function via a spreading depolarization. We hypothesized that a similar mechanism limits nervous function in other insect taxa. Here, we use electrophysiology to investigate whether the same spreading depolarization event occurs in the brain of butterflies exposed to stressful cold. Supporting our hypothesis, we find that exposure to stressful cold induced spreading depolarization in all species tested. This reinforces the idea that loss of central nervous function by a spreading depolarization is a common mechanism underlying the critical thermal minimum in insects. Furthermore, our results highlight how central nervous system performance is finely tuned to match species' environments. Further research into the physiological mechanisms underlying the spreading depolarization event is likely to elucidate key mechanisms determining insect ecology.

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Autumn larval cold tolerance does not predict the northern range limit of a widespread butterfly species

Cited by 8 publications

References 122 publications

Testing the assumption of environmental equilibrium in an invasive plant species over a 130 year history

Testing the assumption of environmental equilibrium in an invasive plant species over a 130 year history

Growing degree‐days do not explain moth species' distributions at broad scales

Tropical butterflies lose central nervous system function in the cold from a spreading depolarization event

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