Availability Assessment of Complex Systems under Parameter Uncertainty using Dynamic Evidential Networks

Bougofa, Mohammed; Bouafia, Abderraouf; Bellaouara, Ahmed

doi:10.23940/ijpe.20.04.p2.510519

Cited by 9 publications

(3 citation statements)

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“…This EIA was carried out using the methods and data recommended by the (InVS) [14], MEEDDM [12],US-EPA [13] and the WHO [17]. Nevertheless, the EIA process is necessarily accompanied by a degree of uncertainties due to gaps or imprecision in the data collected and the established assumptions [18]. The main sources of uncertainty are:…”

Section: Uncertaintiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Environmental impact assessment Approach to Dynamic Safety Evaluation : A Liquefied Natural Gas Plant Case Study

Bouafia

Bougofa

Zeroauli

et al. 2022

IOP Conf. Ser.: Earth Environ. Sci.

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Industrial discharges pose global ecological risks. This study investigates Algeria’s GL1K (gas liquification complex of Skikda) plant’s hazardous effluents. The impact assessment evaluates the environmental repercussions of the researched facilities, including the effects on populations and their way of life. Thus, it is possible to stress suggestions to improve facility design to remove or restrict negative effects and to minimize or compensate for the current facility’s unfavorable repercussions. This technique is consistent with establishing and monitoring the industrial plant’s environmental management system. The method utilized to determine impacts in this EIA can be used to evaluate the EMS’s significant aspects and effects and provide improvement options. An evaluation matrix can rate impacts, the grid and criteria are based not regulation but on “good practices” for this type of assessment, and results obtained from modelling the effects using PHAST software. Therefore, they can be modified to fit the facility’s activity. Based on examining activities and identifying elements likely to interact with the environment, environmental aspects are identified using the proposed grid and criteria. This study describes a section-by-section approach. Each determined environmental impact can be graded based on environmental factor criteria.

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Section: Uncertaintiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Environmental impact assessment Approach to Dynamic Safety Evaluation : A Liquefied Natural Gas Plant Case Study

Bouafia

Bougofa

Zeroauli

et al. 2022

IOP Conf. Ser.: Earth Environ. Sci.

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“…However, all prior research has focused on the reliability of non-repairable systems using EN but has missed the availability evaluation of complex repairable systems via EN. Bougofa et al [16] suggested an evidential network-based model for assessing system availability under parameter uncertainty. Another paper [9] focuses on extending DEN to determine the availability based on transforming dynamic spare gates and CCF using the β-factor model on the same model.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamic Availability Assessment Using Dynamic Evidential Network: Water Deluge System Case Study

Bougofa

Bouafia

Chakhrit

et al. 2022

IOP Conf. Ser.: Earth Environ. Sci.

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Probabilistic modeling is widespread in engineering practices, mainly to evaluate the safety, risk analysis, and reliability of complex systems. However, insufficient data makes it difficult to estimate the state probability of components or the global system in dynamic complex systems. Furthermore, conventional methods for dependability analysis typically have little capacity to cope with dependence, failure behavior, epistemic uncertainty, and common cause failure simultaneously. This paper presents the application of an extended discrete-time dynamic evidential network (DEN) model to assess the availability of complex systems. The model application combines Dempster-Shafer's theory to treat epistemic uncertainty over a new state-space reconstruction of components and the dynamic Bayesian network to present multi-state system dependability. This model is demonstrated in a real case study of a water deluge system installed as a safety barrier from Algeria's oil and gas plant. The results show the significant influence of these factors on the system's availability. The goal of this modeling is to assure the high availability of a safety barrier in a volatile setting by providing a decision-making tool to prioritize maintenance tasks, preventing the failure of complicated redundant systems, and recommending alterations to the design.

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“…In order to reflect the complexity of the actual dynamical system, there is a need to consider the parameter uncertainties due to the changes of internal structure and environmental impacts, which can not be ignored and estimated with difficulties (Luo et al, 2019). In order to facilitate the theoretical research from mathematics, the parameters uncertainties of the system model have been well discussed as in Bougofa et al (2020) and Locke et al (2020). Beyond that, Malinin and Gales (2018) has proposed a new framework for modelling the predictive uncertainties called Prior Networks, which can explicitly model the distributional uncertainties.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

State estimation via prediction-based scheme for linear time-varying uncertain networks with communication transmission delays and stochastic coupling

Jia

et al. 2021

Systems Science & Control Engineering

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Availability Assessment of Complex Systems under Parameter Uncertainty using Dynamic Evidential Networks

Cited by 9 publications

References 0 publications

Environmental impact assessment Approach to Dynamic Safety Evaluation : A Liquefied Natural Gas Plant Case Study

Environmental impact assessment Approach to Dynamic Safety Evaluation : A Liquefied Natural Gas Plant Case Study

Dynamic Availability Assessment Using Dynamic Evidential Network: Water Deluge System Case Study

State estimation via prediction-based scheme for linear time-varying uncertain networks with communication transmission delays and stochastic coupling

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