Availability Projections of Hydroelectric Power Plants through Monte Carlo Simulation

Abstract

The present work proposes a Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) to obtain availability projections for Hydroelectric Power Plants (HPP), based mainly on regulatory aspects involving the Availability Factor (AFA). The main purpose of the simulation is to generate scenarios to obtain statistics for risk analysis and decision-making in relation to the HPP. The proposed methodology consists of two steps, firstly, the optimization of the maintenance schedule of the hydroelectric plant is carried out, in order to allocate the mandatory maintenance in the simulation horizon. Then, for the MCS, scenarios of forced shutdowns of the Generating Units (GU) will be generated, which directly influence the operation and, consequently, the availability of the HPP. The scenarios will be inserted into an operation optimization model, which considers the impact of forced shutdown samples on the MCS. The proposed modeling was applied using real data from the Santo Antônio HPP, which is one of the largest hydroelectric plants in Brazil.

Estimate and Analysis the Availability of Generator in Electric Power Plant Using ANN

“…Availability analysis techniques have been gradually accepted as standard tools for the planning and operation of complex thermal power plants. de Oliveira, et al, [3] presented a Monte Carlo Simulation to project the availability of hydroelectric plants. The proposed methodology addresses operational and regulatory aspects, where the plant's availability is evaluated through the measured hours of interruptions due to scheduled and forced maintenance.…”