Avalanche Hazard Assessment in Low Mountains, Based on the Example of the January 2021 Norilsk Avalanche Disaster

Abstract

This paper presents the reconstruction results of catastrophic avalanche characteristics. The avalanche occurred on the slope of the Gora Otdelnaya ski resort on January 9, 2021 (Norilsk). It had a peak pressure of 0.266 MPa and led to the destruction of a suburban settlement, covering an area of about 0.9 ha. Six people got caught in the avalanch, of whom three were killed. The virtual and calculated boundaries of the maximum avalanche run-out distance are given. The causes of the catastrophe are also under investigation. An avalanche hazard assessment methodology for the Russian Arctic region and other poorly studied areas with no long-term avalanche observations is suggested.

A Study on Avalanche-Triggering Factors and Activity Characteristics in Aerxiangou, West Tianshan Mountains, China

“…In the study of the mechanism of avalanche disasters, the physical and mechanical nature and trends of the dynamic change process from the steady state to unstable sliding are analyzed under the joint action of the inherent geological conditions of the mountain area and meteorological and human-induced factors, which provides a theoretical basis for avalanche prediction and early warning and effective prevention [26,35]. At present, many scholars have examined various avalanche-causing mechanisms, such as the analysis of avalanche formation conditions and influencing factors [28,36,37], analysis of snow layer forces [38], analysis of snow mechanical properties and spatial and temporal variation patterns [27,39,40], and analysis of the impact of skiing on the snow layer stability [10,41].…”

“…Referring to the literature, each factor was analyzed hierarchically. Graded analysis of the factors was conducted based on relevant studies [23,[26][27][28]. Details of the grading process are provided in Table 2.…”