Average Rank and Adjusted Rank Are Better Measures of College Student Success than GPA

Abstract

I show that there are better measures of student college performance than grade point average (GPA) by undertaking a fine-grained empirical investigation of grading within a large public university. The value of using GPA as a measure of comparative performance is undermined by academically weaker students taking courses where the grading is more generous. In fact, college courses composed of weaker performing students (whether measured by their relative performance in other classes, SAT scores, or high school GPA) have higher average grades. To partially correct for idiosyncratic grading across classes, alternative measures, student class rank and the student's average class rank, are introduced. In comparison to a student's lower-division grade, the student's lower-division rank is a better predictor of the student's grade in the upper-division course. Course rank and course grade are adjusted to account for different levels of academic competitiveness across courses (more precisely, student fixed-effects are derived). SAT scores and high school GPA are then used to predict college performance. Higher explained variation (R 2 ) is obtained when the dependent variable is average class rank rather than GPA. Still higher explained variation occurs when the dependent variable is adjusted rank.

The University of California Was Wrong to Abolish the SAT: Admissions When Affirmative Action Was Banned

“…If everyone takes course 1 and the top half of the students who received an A take course 2 and the bottom half of the students who received a C take course 3, then there is a downward bias in GPA for those in the upper half of the students in class 1 when they take classes 1 and 2 and an upward bias for students at the bottom half when they take courses 1 and 3. All of this is relevant here because there is a tendency for academically weaker students to take courses where the grading is more generous (Wittman, 2022), thereby reducing the measured influence of SAT and HSGPA on fyGPA.…”

“…It is well recognized that individual differences in college course choice reduce the measured influence of HSGPA and SAT scores on college GPA. See for example, Berry and Sackett (2009) who look at cross‐sectional data, and Wittman (2022) who looks at UCSC data.…”

Teacher-assigned grades and external exams: sources of discrepancy

“…Where common operationalisations of academic achievement – e.g. GPA and aggregated test scores – are used and in educational assessment systems with heterogeneous conceptualisations of academic achievement, such as the USA (Brookhart et al, 2016 ; Willingham et al, 2002 ; Wittman, 2022 ), the use of concurrent validity arguments may be inappropriate.…”

“…Since neither the content taught nor the content assessed by grades or standardised tests in the USA is guided by a national curriculum (U.S. Department of Education, 2008 ), validity arguments that rely on criterion-related evidence may be inappropriate (Brookhart et al, 2016 ). Furthermore, GPA often encompasses different subjects and thus may fail as an indicator of comparable academic achievement (Wittman, 2022 ).…”

Exploring the multidimensional impact of ICT on academic achievement and mental health: Evidence from a large‐scale survey of higher vocational students in China

“…Academic achievement was measured by grade rank, class rank, English proficiency test, scholarship, vocational qualification certificate and vocational skill competition (Rodríguez‐Hernández et al, 2020; Wang et al, 2022; Wittman, 2022). The study used 1–5 to represent the top 20% to the bottom 20% of grade and class ranks.…”