Aviation fuel tracer simulation: Model intercomparison and implications

Danilin, M. Y.; Fahey, D. W.; Schumann, U.; Prather, Michael J.; Penner, Joyce E.; Ko, Malcolm K. W.; Weisenstein, Debra K.; Jackman, Charles H.; Pitari, Giovanni; Köhler, I.; Sausen, R.; Weaver, C. J.; Douglass, Anne R.; Connell, Peter S.; Kinnison, Douglas E.; Dentener, Frank; Fleming, Eric L.; Berntsen, Terje; Isaksen, I. S. A.; Haywood, Jim M.; Kärcher, B.

doi:10.1029/1998gl900058

Cited by 53 publications

(63 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…Comparing the observational data provided by Pueschel et al (1992) and Blake and Kato (1995) with the model studies by Danilin et al (1998) and Rahmes et al (1998), one finds that the BC concentrations measured in the northern hemispheric mid-and high latitude UTLS are comparable to the simulated aircraft-induced perturbations. However, recent observations by Baumgardner et al (2003Baumgardner et al ( , 2004 reveal that UTLS BC concentrations can be significantly larger than the simulated aviation-induced BC levels.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 95%

“…In the global model study by Danilin et al (1998) on the aviation impact on the UTLS BC load (Sect.1), the impact of wet removal was neglected above 400 hPa. In order to make the results of the present study more comparable to the previous study and in order to assess the impact of BC removal in high clouds, a third sensitivity experiment ("NOICE") was accomplished.…”

Section: Description Of the Simulationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Rahmes et al (1998) performed 2-D simulations on the aircraft contribution to the atmospheric BC mass loading including a detailed representation of processes controlling the atmospheric BC cycle. The Danilin et al (1998) and Rahmes et al (1998) model studies reveal maximum zonal mean aircraft-induced perturbations in the range of 0.1-1 ng(BC)/m 3 occurring in the northern mid-and high latitude UTLS. However, since the effect of surface BC emissions on the UTLS region was not included in the models, the relative impact of aviation BC emissions could not be quantified.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Therefore, it has been debated whether aviation may contribute significantly to the BC budget of the UTLS region. Danilin et al (1998) discussed global simulations on the atmospheric dispersion of aircraft fuel tracer emissions performed with different 2-D and 3-D models considering pre-defined tracer lifetimes. From the fuel tracer distributions, the aircraft-induced increase in atmospheric BC mass loading was derived considering typical BC emission indices.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The UTLS background BC concentrations simulated with the various models can show large differences. Since also the aviation-induced perturbations simulated with the different model approaches discussed by Danilin et al (1998) and Rahmes et al (1998) differ significantly, calculations of the relative impact of aviation should be based on a consistent model approach including both surface BC emissions as well as BC from aviation. The only study analysing the aviation impact with such a consistent approach was provided by Köhler et al (2001).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Simulating the global atmospheric black carbon cycle: a revisit to the contribution of aircraft emissions

Hendricks¹,

Kärcher²,

Döpelheuer³

et al. 2004

Atmos. Chem. Phys.

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Abstract. The black carbon (BC) burden of the upper troposphere and lowermost stratosphere (UTLS) is investigated with the general circulation model (GCM) ECHAM4. The special focus is the contribution of aircraft emissions to the UTLS BC loading. Previous studies on the role of aircraft emissions in the global BC cycle either neglect BC sources located at the Earth's surface or simplify the BC cycle by assuming pre-defined BC residence times. Here, the global BC cycle including emissions, transport, and removal is explicitly simulated. The BC emissions considered include surface sources as well as BC from aviation. This enables a consistent calculation of the relative contribution of aviation to the global atmospheric BC cycle. As a further extension to the previous studies, the aviation-induced perturbation of the UTLS BC particle number concentration is investigated. The uncertainties associated with the model predictions are evaluated by means of several sensitivity studies. Especially, the sensitivity of the results to different assumptions on the BC hygroscopic properties is analysed. The simulated UTLS BC concentrations are compared to in-situ observations. The simulations suggest that the large-scale contribution of aviation to the UTLS BC mass budget typically amounts to only a few percent, even in the most frequented flight regions. The aviation impact far away from these regions is negligible. The simulated aircraft contributions to the UTLS BC particle number concentration are much larger compared to the corresponding mass perturbations. The simulations suggest that aviation can cause large-scale increases in the UTLS BC particle number concentration of more than 30% in regions highly frequented by aircraft. The relative effect shows a pronounced annual variation with the largest relative aviation impact occurring during winter.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 95%

Section: Description Of the Simulationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Simulating the global atmospheric black carbon cycle: a revisit to the contribution of aircraft emissions

Hendricks¹,

Kärcher²,

Döpelheuer³

et al. 2004

Atmos. Chem. Phys.

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Transport impacts on atmosphere and climate: Aviation

Lee

Pitari

Grewe

et al. 2010

Atmospheric Environment

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629

474

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a b s t r a c tAviation alters the composition of the atmosphere globally and can thus drive climate change and ozone depletion. The last major international assessment of these impacts was made by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 1999. Here, a comprehensive updated assessment of aviation is provided. Scientific advances since the 1999 assessment have reduced key uncertainties, sharpening the quantitative evaluation, yet the basic conclusions remain the same. The climate impact of aviation is driven by long-term impacts from CO 2 emissions and shorter-term impacts from non-CO 2 emissions and effects, which include the emissions of water vapour, particles and nitrogen oxides (NO x ). The presentday radiative forcing from aviation (2005) is estimated to be 55 mW m À2 (excluding cirrus cloud enhancement), which represents some 3.5% (range 1.3-10%, 90% likelihood range) of current anthropogenic forcing, or 78 mW m À2 including cirrus cloud enhancement, representing 4.9% of current forcing (range 2-14%, 90% likelihood range). According to two SRES-compatible scenarios, future forcings may increase by factors of 3-4 over 2000 levels, in 2050. The effects of aviation emissions of CO 2 on global mean surface temperature last for many hundreds of years (in common with other sources), whilst its non-CO 2 effects on temperature last for decades. Much progress has been made in the last ten years on characterizing emissions, although major uncertainties remain over the nature of particles. Emissions of NO x result in production of ozone, a climate warming gas, and the reduction of ambient methane (a cooling effect) although the overall balance is warming, based upon current understanding. These NO x emissions from current subsonic aviation do not appear to deplete stratospheric ozone. Despite the progress made on modelling aviation's impacts on tropospheric chemistry, there remains a significant spread in model results. The knowledge of aviation's impacts on cloudiness has also improved: a limited number of studies have demonstrated an increase in cirrus cloud attributable to aviation although the magnitude varies: however, these trend analyses may be impacted by satellite artefacts. The effect of aviation particles on clouds (with and without contrails) may give rise to either a positive forcing or a negative forcing: the modelling and the underlying processes are highly uncertain, although the overall effect of contrails and enhanced cloudiness is considered to be a positive forcing and could be substantial, compared with other effects. The debate over quantification of aviation impacts has also progressed towards studying potential mitigation and the technological and atmospheric tradeoffs. Current studies are still relatively immature and more work is required to determine optimal technological development paths, which is an aspect that atmospheric science has much to contribute. In terms of alternative fuels, liquid hydrogen represents a possibility and may reduce some of aviation's impacts on clim...

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