Avoided economic impacts of energy demand changes by 1.5 and 2 °C climate stabilization

Park, Chan; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Takakura, Jun’ya; Toko, Kiyoshi; Hijioka, Yasuaki

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aab724

Cited by 29 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 56 publications

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“…The emission consequences of our projected climate-driven expansion of global fossil fuel demand give rise to a fundamental tension between mitigating and adapting to higher temperatures. Follow-up investigations using IAM simulations to characterize the balance of these forces and its implications for the joint costs of mitigation and adaptation have just started to appear in the literature 53 . Empirically based, global-scale probabilistic impact projections of the kind reported here are critical to catalyzing synergistic research throughout the broader integrated assessment community.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Amplification of future energy demand growth due to climate change

2019

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Future energy demand is likely to increase due to climate change, but the magnitude depends on many interacting sources of uncertainty. We combine econometrically estimated responses of energy use to income, hot and cold days with future projections of spatial population and national income under five socioeconomic scenarios and temperature increases around 2050 for two emission scenarios simulated by 21 Earth System Models (ESMs). Here we show that, across 210 realizations of socioeconomic and climate scenarios, vigorous (moderate) warming increases global climate-exposed energy demand before adaptation around 2050 by 25–58% (11–27%), on top of a factor 1.7–2.8 increase above present-day due to socioeconomic developments. We find broad agreement among ESMs that energy demand rises by more than 25% in the tropics and southern regions of the USA, Europe and China. Socioeconomic scenarios vary widely in the number of people in low-income countries exposed to increases in energy demand.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Amplification of future energy demand growth due to climate change

2019

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“…Since no single model encompassing all identified options exists, suitable approaches to substantiate the conclusions of this paper with empirical estimates include either a qualitative systematic review of quantitative studies or a quantitative analysis based on a multi-model inter-comparison exercise. Model-based analyses integrating energy for adaptation options and mitigation [3,[63][64][65] are needed to substantiate how the global macroeconomic and environmental implications of adaptation could interact with mitigation in the transition towards sustainability. Such research would complement and enrich the expanding literature on climate policy and SDGs with system perspective that, as of now, has been focusing on mitigation [66,67].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For the first time in the history of climate negotiations, the Paris Agreement establishes a long-term adaptation goal, reiterating the necessity of an integrated approach to climate resilience and inclusive low-carbon development. Even if the rise in global average temperature is restricted within 2 • C, impacts of climate change are inevitable [2,3] with negative effects primarily in low-income countries located near the Equator [4] that have limited capacity to adapt [5].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Building a Framework to Understand the Energy Needs of Adaptation

2019

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Adaptation is a critical option to cope with climate change, as it alleviates the residual climate damages not avoided by emission reduction measures. However, adaptive actions can consume extra amounts of energy. This paper introduces a framework to identify the energy use associated with adaptation and qualifies its relevance in terms of sustainable development. A qualitative, bottom-up analysis of the policy commitments submitted in the context of the Paris Agreement and the 2030 UN Agenda for sustainable development is complemented with a review of the literature on adaptation, energy, and sustainable development. The analysis of the policy options related to vulnerability reduction in the Nationally Determined Contributions reveals a set of recurring adaptation strategies strongly associated with energy use. By linking the resulting options to the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) targets and indicators, we show that energy-related adaptation options are all connected to at least one SDG, though the strength of the connection varies across adaptation options and SDGs. The descriptive synthesis provided in this paper sets a framework for future research aimed at assessing the energy implications of adaptation strategies, contributing to further understand the nexus between climate policy and development.

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“…Previous research estimated energy consumption and associated CO 2 emissions by means of degreedays (Moustris et al 2015, Hao et al 2016, Park et al 2018. Heating degree-days (HDDs) and cooling degree-days (CDDs) are accumulated Celsius degree temperature deviations from a defined base temperature within a certain period (CIBSE 2006).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate-driven changes in CO₂ emissions associated with residential heating and cooling demand by end-century in China

Zhang

Zhou

2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Global climate change affects residential heating and cooling demand that further contributes to carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions. The spatio-temporal changes in magnitude and distribution of the demands in China are poorly understood. In addition, few studies have focused on the future impact of climate change on long term residential CO 2 emissions in China. Here we investigate regional changes in CO 2 emissions calculated from degree-days. Our results show that heating degree-days (HDD), cooling degree-days (CDD) and their associated CO 2 emissions all have large spatio-temporal variability. We find that average durations of HDD and CDD are predicted to be 34 days shorter and 63 days longer by the end of century (2071-2100) than history . CO 2 emissions from residential cooling and heating are predicted to increase 218% and decrease 30% in China by endcentury, respectively. We further examine the CO 2 emissions from residential heating and cooling in five cities representative of five contrasting architectural climate zones in China. The CO 2 emissions from heating of these cities are projected to decrease by end-century: 26% in Harbin, 32% in Beijing, 43% in Shanghai, 42% in Kunming, and 61% in Shenzhen. The CO 2 emissions from cooling of these cities all increase by end-century: 436% in Harbin, 215% in Beijing, 223% in Shanghai, 765% in Kunming, and 149% in Shenzhen.

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Avoided economic impacts of energy demand changes by 1.5 and 2 °C climate stabilization

Cited by 29 publications

References 56 publications

Amplification of future energy demand growth due to climate change

Amplification of future energy demand growth due to climate change

Building a Framework to Understand the Energy Needs of Adaptation

Climate-driven changes in CO₂ emissions associated with residential heating and cooling demand by end-century in China

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Avoided economic impacts of energy demand changes by 1.5 and 2 °C climate stabilization

Cited by 29 publications

References 56 publications

Amplification of future energy demand growth due to climate change

Amplification of future energy demand growth due to climate change

Building a Framework to Understand the Energy Needs of Adaptation

Climate-driven changes in CO2 emissions associated with residential heating and cooling demand by end-century in China

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Climate-driven changes in CO₂ emissions associated with residential heating and cooling demand by end-century in China