PrefaceThe future of gas in the energy mix is a topic of obvious interest to the Natural Gas Programme at OIES, but we believe that it is particularly relevant given that expectations about its role in Europe have been confounded over the past decade. The argument that gas is the cleanest fossil fuel and should at least displace coal in the energy mix, especially in the power sector, has had little if any traction with policy-makers in spite of the apparent boost to the fuel's prospects provided by the COP21 agreement in December. In fact over the past decade gas's share of the European energy mix has declined sharply in the face of a rise in renewable energy, while coal demand has remained remarkably robust.A number of factors have contributed to this outcome. A low coal price, combined with an ineffective carbon price, has undermined the economics of gas-fired power generation; the importance of the coal industry as an important source of employment in a number of key European countries has discouraged attempts to reduce demand for it; concerns over methane leakage in the gas chain, as well as the debate over the exploitation of shale gas using fracked wells, have raised environmental concerns; and finally security of supply issues have been raised due to the perception of an overdependence on Russian gas in the European market, in particular in light of the continuing crisis in Russia-Ukraine relations. Overall then, the potential benefits of gas as an energy source which can reduce short term CO2 emissions and complement the intermittency of wind and solar power have failed to gain acceptance from a variety of environmental, energy and political stakeholders.In this paper Jonathan Stern reviews in detail the problems which gas continues to face in Europe, and also highlights the potential impact on all parts of the gas value chain. Indeed he suggests that it is the fragmentation of the gas industry, and the different incentives within each sector, which is partly to blame for the lack of a coherent message from the industry as a whole. His conclusion is a radical one, namely that in order to have a long-term future the gas industry needs to develop a decarbonisation strategy. Furthermore, it needs to do it fast, because policy decisions made in the next few years will determine whether gas has a promising or declining outlook in Europe beyond 2030.The paper is deliberately Euro-centric, because this is the region where gas appears under greatest threat. Nevertheless, Stern acknowledges that different regions will have different outcomes, and it does appear, for example, that in Asia the potential for demand growth is significant. However, the European example can provide a salutary lesson concerning the mistakes that can be made by an industry that is convinced by a logic which fails to persuade a wider stakeholder community. The challenges in China and India, in particular the threat from cheap coal, are not so dissimilar, and the outlook for gas there remains uncertain.As a result, conclusions reached from...