<b>Findings</b>—Using Stock Prices to Predict Market Events: Evidence on Sales Takeoff and Long-Term Firm Survival

Markovitch, Dmitri G.; Golder, Peter N.

doi:10.1287/mksc.1070.0325

Cited by 31 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 39 publications

(33 reference statements)

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“…We estimated the long-term effect using buy-and-hold return, Ibbotson returns across time and securities, and calendar-time portfolio models as outlined by Sorescu, Shankar, and Kushwaha (2007) and Markovitch and Golder (2008). The results indicate no effect on long-term abnormal returns, which may be due to several reasons.…”

Section: Do Marketing Alliance Announcements Have Long-term Effects?mentioning

confidence: 95%

Marketing Alliances, Firm Networks, and Firm Value Creation

Swaminathan

Moorman

2009

Journal of Marketing

332

302

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Prior research has found that the announcement of marketing alliances tends to produce no effect on firm value creation in a high-tech context. This article reexamines this issue and investigates whether the characteristics of a firm's network of alliances affect the firm value created from the announcement of a new marketing alliance. The authors investigate whether network centrality, network density, network efficiency, network reputation, and marketing alliance capability influence firm value creation. They examine this question using an event study of 230 announcements for marketing alliances in the software industry. The results indicate that, in general, marketing alliance announcements create value (i.e., abnormal stock returns) for the firm in the announcement period event window. Furthermore, network efficiency and network density have the strongest positive impact when they are moderate; network reputation and network centrality have no effect. These results point to the greater role of relational network characteristics than size-/status-based benefits. Finally, marketing alliance capability, which reflects a firm's ability to manage a network of previous marketing alliances, has a positive impact on value creation.

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Section: Do Marketing Alliance Announcements Have Long-term Effects?mentioning

confidence: 95%

Marketing Alliances, Firm Networks, and Firm Value Creation

Swaminathan

Moorman

2009

Journal of Marketing

332

302

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“…The survival analysis methods are rarely used in the capital market analysis. However, in foreign literature there are attempts to use them in this area (Lunde and Timmermann, 2004;Devilleand Riva, 2007;Markovitch and Golder, 2008;Markowicz, 2017, 2018).…”

Section: Research Methodology and Statistical Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Survival analysis in assessment of influence of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic on probability and intensity of decline in the value of stock indices

Bieszk‐Stolorz

Dmytrów

2020

Preprint

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The aim of the study is to assess the strength of the world stock exchanges reaction to the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus pandemic at the turn of 2019-2020. The risk and intensity of the decline in the values of the basic stock indices were analysed. The spreading pandemic within a few months covered all continents and had a significant impact on the socio-economic situation of all countries. The study used methods of duration analysis. The time of the 20% drop in stock market indices was studied. This is a value that is taken as a sign of crisis. Kaplan-Meier's estimator was used to assess the probability of indices' value decrease. The risk of decline was determined by means of a logit model and the intensity of the decline was determined by means of an empirical hazard estimator and a Cox proportional hazard model. The intensity and risk of decline of stock indices varied from continent to continent. The intensity was highest in the fourth and eighth week after the peak and was highest on European exchanges and then American and Asian exchanges (including Australia). The risk of falling stock indices was highest in America, followed by Europe, Asia and Australia, and lowest in Africa. Half of the analysed indices recorded a 20-percent drop in value after 52 days (median duration). The study is a prelude to further analyses related to the crisis and the normalisation of the situation on world stock exchanges. It allows to learn about the impact of the pandemic on the economic situation and to detect differences between the continents. The methods from the survival analysis are used in the study to assess the impact of the pandemic on the intensity and risk of decline in stock exchange indices.

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“…Survival analysis methods are rarely used in capital market analysis. However, in foreign literature there have been attempts to use them in this area [Lunde, Timmermann, 2004;Deville, Riva, 2007;Markovitch, Golder, 2008].…”

Section: Methodology Of the Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

Application of models of survival analysis in the assessment of the situation of macrosectors of listed companies

Bieszk‐Stolorz¹,

Markowicz²

2018

Optimum

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Goal -The goal of the article is the assessment of the possibilities of recovery after decrease of prices of shares of companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange in the years 2008-2009 and 2011-2013 in particular macrosectors: industrials, financials and services. The probability and intensity of increase and decrease of prices were analysed.Research methodology -Selected methods of survival analysis were applied. The Kaplan-Meier estimator was used in the analysis of the probability of increase and decrease of prices of shares in the macrosectors. The intensity of decrease and increase of prices was assessed by means of the empirical hazard model and the proportional Cox model. Threshold values of the increase and decrease of prices were calculated on the basis of changes of the WIG index in analysed periods. Comparative analysis of these two periods was also conducted.Score -The hypothesis about a similar situation of macrosectors during the financial crisis and in the bear market was confirmed. In case of the financials macrosector, its reaction to the market situation was the strongest in both the decrease and increase of share prices. The companies of the industrials macrosector were in better situation than the financial companies. The service companies reacted weakly on the market changes.Originality /value -The application of the survival analysis methods in the study of the capital market.

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Findings—Using Stock Prices to Predict Market Events: Evidence on Sales Takeoff and Long-Term Firm Survival

Cited by 31 publications

References 39 publications

Marketing Alliances, Firm Networks, and Firm Value Creation

Marketing Alliances, Firm Networks, and Firm Value Creation

Survival analysis in assessment of influence of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic on probability and intensity of decline in the value of stock indices

Application of models of survival analysis in the assessment of the situation of macrosectors of listed companies

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