Back to the past: the historical roots of labor-saving automation

Abstract

This paper, relying on a still relatively unexplored long-term dataset on U.S. patenting activity, provides empirical evidence on the history of labor-saving innovations back to early nineteenth century. The identification of mechanization/automation heuristics, retrieved via textual content analysis on current robotic technologies by Montobbio et al. (Robots and the origin of their labour-saving impact, LEM Working Paper Series 2020/03), allows to focus on a limited set of CPC codes where mechanization and automation technologies are more prevalent. We track their time evolution, clustering, eventual emergence of wavy behavior, and their comovements with long-term GDP growth. Our results challenge both the general-purpose technology approach and the strict 50-year Kondratiev cycle, while they provide evidence of the emergence of erratic constellations of heterogeneous technological artefacts, in line with the development-block approach enabled by autocatalytic systems.

Automation and related technologies: a mapping of the new knowledge base

“…See alsoStaccioli and Virgillito (2021) for a recent analysis of long waves in labour-saving automation technologies.…”

The Present, Past, and Future of Labor-Saving Technologies

“…In a subsequent paper, Staccioli and Virgillito (2020) move ahead by delving into the past, i.e. by adopting a historical technological constellation perspective and looking at the emergence and evolution of the bundle of technologies behind current LS heuristics detected in robotic technologies.…”

“…Mapping the present into the past by looking at the long run evolution of CPC codes characterizing current LS technologies, Staccioli and Virgillito (2020) provide evidence that robots are the result of a bundle of complex technological functions and artifacts which have been punctuated by different upswing and downswing phases over the last two centuries. More importantly, robots are not a unique general purpose technology but rather a cluster of heterogeneous innovations whose unfolding and diffusion is far from deterministic.…”

“…Figure 1: Time evolution of mechanization and automation technologies. Source:Staccioli and Virgillito (2020) …”

May AI Revolution Be Labour-Friendly? Some Micro Evidence from the Supply Side

“…As mentioned above, the extant economic literature focuses on the possible labour-saving effect of AI and robots, conceived as process innovation in the user industries. In doing so, recent contributions belong to a long-lasting tradition of studies devoted to the controversial relationship between technology and employment (for a long-term historical analysis, see Staccioli and Virgillito, 2021; for a recent theoretical reprise of the issue, see Restrepo, 2018 and2019).…”