Balancing Cost, Risk, and Performance Under Uncertainty in Preliminary Mission Design

Thunnissen, Daniel P.

doi:10.2514/6.2004-5878

Cited by 9 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 12 publications

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“…The Space Shuttle launch probability throughout its history was 0.53. Even the relatively simple Delta II only had a 0.56 launch probability for launches between 1989 and 2001 [4]. While many delays are weather related or involve minor problems that can be quickly corrected, either of which allow the next attempt to occur quickly, there are often failures on the launch pad that require long periods of time to correct.…”

Section: Types Of Risksmentioning

confidence: 99%

Launch and assembly reliability analysis for human space exploration missions

Cates¹,

Gelito²,

Stromgren³

et al. 2012

2012 IEEE Aerospace Conference

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Abstract-NASA's future human space exploration strategy includes single and multi-launch missions to various destinations including cis-lunar space, near Earth objects such as asteroids, and ultimately Mars. Each campaign is being defined by Design Reference Missions (DRMs). Many of these missions are complex, requiring multiple launches and assembly of vehicles in orbit. Certain missions also have constrained departure windows to the destination. These factors raise concerns regarding the reliability of launching and assembling all required elements in time to support planned departure. This paper describes an integrated methodology for analyzing launch and assembly reliability in any single DRM or set of DRMs starting with flight hardware manufacturing and ending with final departure to the destination. A discrete event simulation is built for each DRM that includes the pertinent risk factors including, but not limited to: manufacturing completion; ground transportation; ground processing; launch countdown; ascent; rendezvous and docking, assembly, and orbital operations leading up to transdestination-injection. Each reliability factor can be selectively activated or deactivated so that the most critical risk factors can be identified. This enables NASA to prioritize mitigation actions so as to improve mission success.

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Section: Types Of Risksmentioning

confidence: 99%

Launch and assembly reliability analysis for human space exploration missions

Cates¹,

Gelito²,

Stromgren³

et al. 2012

2012 IEEE Aerospace Conference

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“…By analyzing the orbital dynamics characteristics of timesharing lifting rails, a multisatellite placement method with phase adjustment realized by time-sharing sequence lifting rails was proposed in reference [4]. Time-sharing orbit lifting maneuver needs to meet the following conditions: the constellation layout and structure are uniform, and the phase deviation between any adjacent satellites is consistent, that is, the time-sharing orbit lifting maneuver of any two adjacent satellites has the same delay [5].…”

Section: Analysis Of In-plane Phase Angle Initializationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of Initial Deployment Strategy for Low-Orbit Large-Scale Constellations

Chen³

et al. 2022

International Journal of Aerospace Engineering

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With the development of commercial space technology, low-orbit large-scale satellite constellation has shown great development potential in communication services and military applications due to its advantages of low delay, strong signal, high coverage rate, fast communication rate, and low cost of mass production. It has become an urgent problem in the field of satellite constellations to study the perturbation evolution law of low-orbit large-scale constellation initialization and orbit maintenance, and how to maintain and control the deployment and initialization of low-orbit satellite constellations efficiently, economically, and stably. In this paper, the satellite motion law, constellation configuration evolution characteristics, and constellation initialization control strategy are analyzed considering the perturbation of earth’s nonspherical gravity and atmospheric drag under the orbit deviation of satellite orbit elements. Firstly, MonteCarlo simulation was used to simulate the deviation of satellite initial orbit elements, and the evolution law of ascending ascension point and phase angle of different constellations was analyzed and, secondly, establish the initialization phase constellation deployment and the ascending node right ascension deployment of mathematical equations, using Starlink constellation (V1.0-L3, 8) satellite TLE data; initialization of Leo constellation orbit plane is analyzed, by considering the orbit bias satellite simulation data; the same orbital plane satellite initialization phase deployment method is analyzed; finally, this paper provides some suggestions for the future deployment and maintenance control strategy of low-orbit constellation.

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“…The Space Shuttle launch probability throughout its history was 0.53. Even the relatively simple Delta II only had a 0.56 launch probability for launches between 1989 and 2001 [10]. While many delays are weather related or involve minor problems that can be quickly corrected, either of which allow the next attempt to occur quickly, there are often failures on the launch pad that require long periods of time to correct.…”

Section: Key Constraintsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Launch and assembly reliability analysis for Mars human space exploration missions

Cates

Gelito

Stromgren³

et al. 2013

2013 IEEE Aerospace Conference

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Abstract-NASA's long-range goal is focused upon human exploration of Mars. Missions to Mars will require campaigns of multiple launches to assemble Mars Transfer Vehicles in Earth orbit. Launch campaigns are subject to delays, launch vehicles can fail to place their payloads into the required orbit, and spacecraft may fail during the assembly process or while loitering prior to the Trans-Mars Injection (TMI) burn. Additionally, missions to Mars have constrained departure windows lasting approximately sixty days that repeat approximately every two years. Ensuring high reliability of launching and assembling all required elements in time to support the TMI window will be a key enabler to mission success. This paper describes an integrated methodology for analyzing and improving the reliability of the launch and assembly campaign phase. A discrete event simulation involves several pertinent risk factors including, but not limited to: manufacturing completion; transportation; ground processing; launch countdown; ascent; rendezvous and docking, assembly, and orbital operations leading up to TMI. The model accommodates varying numbers of launches, including the potential for spare launches. Having a spare launch capability provides significant improvement to mission success.

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Balancing Cost, Risk, and Performance Under Uncertainty in Preliminary Mission Design

Cited by 9 publications

References 12 publications

Launch and assembly reliability analysis for human space exploration missions

Launch and assembly reliability analysis for human space exploration missions

Analysis of Initial Deployment Strategy for Low-Orbit Large-Scale Constellations

Launch and assembly reliability analysis for Mars human space exploration missions

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