The expansion of forest plantations is cause for concern because of their environmental effects, and the loss of native forests and agricultural land. Our goal was to quantify the increase in pine plantation, and concomitant loss of native forests, in central Chile since ca. 1960, and to identify in which settings native forests were lost most rapidly. We analyzed aerial photographs from 1955 and 1961, Landsat images from 1975and 1998 Earth high-resolution satellite images from 2014. To ensure high classification accuracy, we visually interpreted images for a systematic 3-km grid and assigned each point as either 'pine plantation', 'native forest', 'agricultural-livestock lands', or 'other'. We also calculated latitude, longitude, slope, Euclidean distance to the nearest road and to the nearest pulp mill, and the frequency of land use surrounding each point as potential variables to explain observed land use changes. Pine plantations expansion started even before 1960, when 12% of all points were already pine plantations, was particularly rapid from 1975 (18% of sample points) to 1998 (38%), and stabilized thereafter (37% by 2014). From 1975 to 1998 alone, 40% of native forests were replaced by pine plantations, and agricultural-livestock lands declined by 0.7%, 0.9%, 1% per year before 1975, from 1975 to 1998, and after 1998 respectively. Native forests that were surrounded by pine plantations, were most likely to be converted to plantations, and from 1960 to 1975, also native forests near pulp mills. The probability of change from agricultural-livestock lands to pine plantations was mainly influenced by slope, with most agricultural-livestock lands remaining in areas with low slopes. regrowth on abandoned agriculture, and partly due to plantations [11][12][13]. The forest transition hypothesis proposed by Mather and Needle [14] suggests that the concentration of agricultural production by farmers on better soils, promotes the abandonment of poorer soils, and allowing for natural reforestation or plantations, thereby increasing forest cover in some places [15,16]. An important forest cover increase, after agricultural abandonment, is in the form of forest plantation expansion [13,17], and that has been observed in several developing countries, mainly in Asia and Latin America [18][19][20].While worldwide natural forest declined between 1990 and 2015, forest plantations increased from 168 M ha to 278 M during the same period [10]. Plantations are often promoted by governments to bring abandoned or agricultural unproductive lands back into use, and mechanisms for that promotion include tax reductions or subsidies with the purpose of stimulating economic development and forestry industry [21,22]. Nevertheless, not only abandoned and unproductive lands have been converted into plantations, native vegetation has also been transformed into forest plantations (e.g. [23][24][25]), which means that the growing of global forest cover entails concomitant native forest loss (e.g. [19,26]).Agglomeration economies (sensu [2...