Bandwagon effects in British elections, 1885–1910

Hodgson, Robert; Maloney, John

doi:10.1007/s11127-012-0027-9

Cited by 18 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…A large body of literature in political science and political economy has studied the presence of the bandwagon and underdog effects as a result of poll surveys and resultant information spillovers (McAllister and Studlar 1991;Fleitas 1971;Skalaban 1988;Kenney and Rice 1994;Goidel and Shields 1994). The majority of the empirical studies report evidence of a bandwagon effect (Bartels 1985;Hodgson and Maloney 2013;Kiss and Simonovits 2014;Morton et al, 2015). A few exceptions are West (1991) and Castro and Newell (2006), who find some evidence of an underdog effect.…”

Section: Related Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

Voting for the underdog or jumping on the bandwagon? Evidence from India’s exit poll ban

Chatterjee

2020

Public Choice

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Exit poll surveys during elections are conducted to predict the outcome of actual elections. However, such polls historically have been controversial, particularly for multi-phase elections, because they can influence the behavior of voters in the later rounds of voting. If subsequent voters are more likely to vote for the predicted frontrunner, the effect is known as the bandwagon voting phenomenon, whereas if they vote for the predicted trailing candidate, the phenomenon is known as underdog voting. To avoid such issues, in 2009 the election administration in the world's largest democracy (India) introduced a blanket ban on publishing exit polls in the media until all rounds of an election are completed. Exploiting the potentially exogenous timing of this reform, and using administrative data to compare states that went to elections before and after the ban, we find that in response to the policy, vote shares increased for the frontrunner and declined for others. The result implies that in the counterfactual, without the ban, fewer people would have voted for the frontrunner. The evidence is suggestive of underdog voting.

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Section: Related Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

Voting for the underdog or jumping on the bandwagon? Evidence from India’s exit poll ban

Chatterjee

2020

Public Choice

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“…Dalam pengertian ini bandwagon merupakan fenomena yang terjadi ketika seseorang yang cenderung membuat pilihan melalui cara-cara yang sensitif terhadap bagaimana para pendahulu bereaksi, karena ia percaya bahwa konsensus berarti kebenaran, atau jika banyak orang lain berpikir sesuatu itu baik, itu mungkin akan menjadi cukup baik untuk mereka juga (Chaiken & Eagly, 1989;Sundar, 2008). Hodgson et al (2013) pada mencoba meneliti bandwagon effect yang memengaruhi pemilihan umum di Inggris antara tahun 1885 dan 1910, diakhir penelitian Hadgson menyimpulkan menemukan efek bandwagon keseluruhan terbukti signifikan dalam pemilihan Inggris antara tahun 1885 dan 1910. Peneliti belum menemukan penelitian empiris dalam menguji pengaruh variabel bandwagon effect yang dengan minat investasi.…”

Section: Pendahuluanunclassified

Uang Kepeng in the Globalization Era: Industrialization at Kamasan Village, Klungkung, Bali

Supir

Sadia

Muderawan

2019

JBK

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Uang kepeng or pis bolong (a traditional coin with a square hole in its center) has become an integral part in the cultural life and rituals of Balinese community. When Bali has been influenced by the ideology of globalization, uang kepeng has not only been used in connection with the culture and rituals, but has become tourism products in the form of souvenirs and ornaments. The coin which was originally brought to Bali from China when it was used as money, now has been produced as a product of a handicraft industry. The change in practice in the production of uang kepeng to an industrialization cannot be separated from an ideology that plays its part behind it. The handicraft industrialization has some implications on the attitude of the craftsmen and the type of product they produce. This study used a qualitative method. The sample was selected using a purposive sampling technique. The data were collected from key informants and the data collection was continued with the next informants like a snow ball that continues rolling. The ideology that influenced the industrialization of uang kepeng handicraft at Kamasan village, Klungkung was that the folk industry is related to the agrarian culture and industrialization is the continuation of the agrarian culture. The implications on the craftsmen and the product that they produce are: the cultural change from a folk culture to a popular culture, fordism as a mass production based on casting, multiculturally oriented product, and that markets produce products.

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“…Otherwise, one can be justified in brushing this aside as 'much ado about nothing'. Although it is a challenging issue to empirically pin down the existence and magnitude of the bandwagon e↵ect, recent empirical studies do confirm the presence of this e↵ect in the past (Hodgson and Maloney, 2013) and also in more recent elections (Kiss and Simonovits, 2014). The potential of these poll predictions to alter election outcomes, and possibly the scope for manipulation, has led countries like France to ban the publication of opinion poll results in the days preceding the election.…”

Section: Predictability 'In Practice'mentioning

confidence: 99%

Information aggregation and computational intelligence

Chen

Venkatachalam

2016

Evolut Inst Econ Rev

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This paper examines the possibility that the computational intelligence (CI) inspired tools can e↵ectively aggregate the rich information generated from the Web 2.0 economy, and thereby enhance the quality of decision-making. Despite many advancements and commendable applications of CI in recent years, this issue has not been well addressed. We argue that this question is intimately related to the central issue of the socialist calculation debate since the time of Friedrich Hayek. In terms of information aggregation, we examine whether there is a better engineering than the market mechanism. More precisely, we focus on whether the CI-driven sentiment analysis can generate signals like prices and whether CI can process the unstructured text data better than the market. We argue that Web 2.0 economy may not be able to set us free from information overload problems that have long co-existed with the presence of markets. We attribute this to the tacitness and subjectivity of knowledge and the recursive (feedback) characteristic of the sentiments. In this sense, Hayek's fundamental assertion that the e↵ectiveness of the market mechanism may not be so much conditioned on the information and communication technology still applies.The first author and the second author are grateful for the research support in the form of Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST) grants, MOST 103-2410-H-004-009-MY3 and MOST 104-2811-H-004-003, respectively. We thank the two anonymous referees for their valuable suggestions that helped to improve the paper. All remaining errors are our own.

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Bandwagon effects in British elections, 1885–1910

Cited by 18 publications

References 27 publications

Voting for the underdog or jumping on the bandwagon? Evidence from India’s exit poll ban

Voting for the underdog or jumping on the bandwagon? Evidence from India’s exit poll ban

Uang Kepeng in the Globalization Era: Industrialization at Kamasan Village, Klungkung, Bali

Information aggregation and computational intelligence

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