Bandwagons in Costly Elections: The Role of Loss Aversion

Leontiou, Anastasia; Manalis, Georgios; Xefteris, Dimitrios

doi:10.2139/ssrn.3970025

Cited by 2 publications

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“…The way we use the terms "mistrust" and "misperception" is consistent with a survey byAcemoglu and Wolitzky (2023) and with the usage of mistrust inKydd (2005).6 See especially the spiral model inKydd (2000).7 Some applied work outside of international relations also uses the sort of context-dependent preferences used in this paper(Grillo 2016;Grillo and Prato 2023;Leontiou, Manalis, and Xefteris 2021).…”

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confidence: 75%

Anger and Political Conflict Dynamics

SCHNAKENBERG,

WAYNE

2024

Am Polit Sci Rev

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Emotions shape strategic conflict dynamics. However, the precise way in which strategic and emotional concerns interact to affect international cooperation and contention are not well understood. We propose a model of intergroup conflict under incomplete information in which agents are sensitive to psychological motivations in the form of anger. Agents become angry in response to worse-than-expected outcomes due to actions of other players. Aggression may be motivated by anger or by beliefs about preferences of members of the other group. Increasing one group’s sensitivity to anger makes that group more aggressive but reduces learning about preferences, which makes the other group less aggressive in response to bad outcomes. Thus, anger has competing effects on the likelihood of conflict. The results have important implications for understanding the complex role of anger in international relations and, more generally, the interplay between psychological and material aims in both fomenting and ameliorating conflict.

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confidence: 75%

Anger and Political Conflict Dynamics

SCHNAKENBERG,

WAYNE

2024

Am Polit Sci Rev

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“…The model of Leontiou et al (2023) also predicts bandwagon effects (i.e. higher turnout in the majority group).…”

Section: Endogenous Reference Pointsmentioning

confidence: 86%

“…Or it could be that reference points are endogenous as suggested by Kőszegi andRabin (2007, 2009), and therefore not susceptible to an endowment effect. Indeed, Leontiou et al (2023) propose a voting model that builds on endogenous reference points and could therefore explain the absence of endowment effects in our experiment. Another finding of our experiment are bandwagon effects of significant magnitude, which also runs counter to the prediction of underdog effects from our own theoretical model and those of Levine and Palfrey (2007) and Herrera et al (2014).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Second, there could simply be no reference dependence in individuals' voting behavior. Standard models of voter turnout do not predict a role for reference dependence, and neither does the competing prospect-theory model of Leontiou et al (2023). Third, it could be that there is an endowment effect, but that it was overridden by experimenter demand effects.…”

Section: Treatment Effectsmentioning

confidence: 96%

“…This idea has been applied, for example, in the context of cab drivers who tend to stop working as soon as they reach some target level of income that has been found to be consistent with ex ante expected daily income (Kőszegi and Rabin, 2006). Leontiou et al (2023) develop a voting model in which they implement such expectations-based reference points. There are two possible choices (vote or abstain), and the expected payoff conditional on a choice acts as the reference point for that respective choice.…”

Section: Endogenous Reference Pointsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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This thesis was a long time in the making, and it is a relief to finally have finished it. It has its origins in a meeting with the, at the time, outgoing and incoming Research Master coordinators, Richard Jong-A-Pin and Tristan Kohl, respectively. While we were brainstorming ideas for my firstyear research project, I mentioned in passing that 'I have always wondered why people vote'. Given that this was one of Richard's research areas, he picked up on it and offered to be my supervisor for this project. We spent hours exploring and discussing the literature and concluded that there was still much more research to be done on the topic of voter behavior. We also needed an expert in game theory on board, and who better to do it than Bert Schoonbeek. Thus began a fruitful collaboration, which resulted in the paper presented in Chapter 2 of this thesis. It was then only logical to continue with a PhD. I really could not have asked for better supervisors. Bert and Richard, I thank you wholeheartedly for your guidance, support, and patience. The final proposition attached to this thesis is a nod to you: without your counsel, my plans would surely have gone wrong. You guided me in terms of I am able to continue my career here after my PhD. Thanks to my office mates over the years, Bart Claassen, Lennart Stangenberg, Tobias Grohmann, and Francesco Febbraro, for the camaraderie and the occasional welcome distraction. Thank you to my teaching colleagues for showing me the ropes and for the pleasant cooperation. I extend my gratitude to

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Bandwagons in Costly Elections: The Role of Loss Aversion

Cited by 2 publications

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Anger and Political Conflict Dynamics

Anger and Political Conflict Dynamics

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